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As the ruling Liberal Democratic Party prepares for its Oct. 4 presidential election, an Asahi Shimbun survey of party lawmakers indicated farm minister Shinjiro Koizumi currently holds the most clear-cut support. 

Following Koizumi, 44, are Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, 64, and former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, also 64.

The 295 members polled who are eligible to vote exclude the speakers of both the Lower and Upper houses. 

None of the candidates appear poised to secure a majority in the first round, making a runoff between the top two contenders likely. 

As of Sept. 29, The Asahi Shimbun received answers from 270 lawmakers who were asked which candidate they support. Of those, 226 named a preferred candidate, while 44 declined to disclose their stance.

With about 15 percent of lawmaker support still unclear, the race remains fluid.

Among those who declared their support, Koizumi received the most backing, with 72 lawmakers.

Notably, 33 of these supporters are not affiliated with any intra-party faction, including former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who shares Koizumi’s non-factional status.

Koizumi also gained support from 14 members of the Aso faction—the only faction still formally active—demonstrating his broad appeal.

Hayashi followed with 57 supporters, consolidating backing from 26 members of the former Kishida faction to which he previously belonged.

Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya and Defense Minister Gen Nakatani, who are members of the Ishiba Cabinet, are also moving to support Hayashi.

Due to his background as a member of the Upper House, Hayashi has garnered more support from Upper House lawmakers than Koizumi.

Takaichi ranked third with 37 supporters.

Her strongest backing comes from the former Abe faction, with 17 members—including former LDP policy chief Koichi Hagiuda—supporting her.

She also has the highest level of support among female lawmakers.

However, compared to Koizumi, her support base is narrower.

Former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi, 50, has the backing of 31 lawmakers, while former LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi, 69, has 29 supporters.

Kobayashi has drawn support primarily from mid-level and younger lawmakers, including those from the former Nikai faction.

Motegi, meanwhile, has the backing of 19 members from the former Motegi faction that he once led.

Both candidates face uphill battles.

The LDP presidential election consists of 590 votes in the first round: 295 from Diet members and 295 from party members and supporters, allocated proportionally.

If no candidate secures a majority, a runoff will be held between the top two contenders that will be decided by the 295 Diet member votes and 47 prefectural chapter votes; support of Diet members will be crucial in determining the final outcome.

(This article was written by Ryutaro Abe and Mika Kuniyoshi.)

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