Photo/Illutration The nine candidates running in the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential race (Asahi Shimbun)

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election will likely be decided in a runoff, an Asahi Shimbun survey shows.

The survey also found that former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi is expected to receive the most support from LDP lawmakers among all nine candidates in the Sept. 27 election.

None of the candidates is expected to secure a majority in the first round of voting, meaning that a runoff between the top two finishers is almost certain.

In a runoff, lawmakers’ votes carry more weight than those on the local level.

In the first round, 367 votes will be cast by party Diet members. An equal amount of 367 votes will be distributed proportionally among local party members and LDP allies from Japan’s 47 prefectures.

The Asahi Shimbun surveyed LDP Diet members, excluding the Lower House speaker and Upper House speaker, and interviewed campaign staffers by Sept. 17 to find out who the lawmakers plan to vote for.

The voting intentions of 289 Diet members were revealed. However, around 20 percent of the lawmakers were undecided or did not respond.

Koizumi, 43, who does not belong to any intraparty faction, has secured backing from 46 lawmakers, followed by 43 for Takayuki Kobayashi, 49, the former minister in charge of economic security, who belongs to the Nikai faction, the survey showed.

Both candidates are supported mainly by young and middle-ranking party members who are seeking LDP reform following the political fund scandal that engulfed certain factions.

Two key figures in the leadership circle of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida placed third and fourth in terms of support from lawmakers.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, 63, who belonged to the now-dissolved Kishida faction, has secured votes from 37 Diet members, according to the survey.

LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi, 68, who heads the Motegi faction, is backed by 34 lawmakers.

The majority of their support comes from members of the respective factions.

Former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba, 67, and Sanae Takaichi, 63, state minister for economic security, can each expect votes from 30 Diet members. Both candidates do not belong to any faction.

Opinion polls show that Ishiba and Takaichi have strong public support, so they plan to gain enough ground among rank-and-file LDP members to win a majority in the first round and avoid a runoff.

Taro Kono, 61, the digital transformation minister and Aso faction member, Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, 71, who belonged to the former Kishida faction, and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato, 68, a member of the Motegi faction, have all struggled to expand their support base among party lawmakers.

Kishida’s term as LDP president expires at the end of September, and he decided not to seek re-election.

Lawmakers will cast their ballots on Sept. 27 and ballot counting will take place that day. LDP prefectural branches will conduct polling beforehand.

The record number of candidates in the race has dispersed lawmakers’ support, meaning the outcome could hinge on the votes of local members and the undecided Diet members.

In the event of a runoff between the top two finishers, all 367 Diet members will vote again.

Only one vote will be allocated to each of the 47 prefectural branches in a runoff. The votes will be awarded to the candidate who garnered more votes in the first round.

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