Photo/Illutration Shigeru Ishiba, top row second from left, Shinjiro Koizumi, bottom row far left, and Sanae Takaichi, bottom row second from left, are the leading candidates in the LDP presidential election, according to media polls. (The Asahi Shimbun)

Three candidates who do not belong to any intraparty faction have pulled ahead of the pack in the tight race for the presidency of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, surveys show.

The election on Sept. 27 is expected to be decided in a runoff, as none of the nine candidates is likely to secure a majority in the first round of voting.

The runoff would pit the top two finishers of the first round against each other.

Those with the best chance of reaching the runoff appear to be Shigeru Ishiba, 67, Shinjiro Koizumi, 43, and Sanae Takaichi, 63, according to various media polls.

Voting by rank-and-file LDP members and supporters will officially close on Sept. 26. Since these ballots are sent by mail, the majority of local members appear to have already voted.

The LDP candidates can now focus all of their attention on gaining support from Diet members, whose votes are worth much more in a runoff.

In a September public opinion poll conducted by The Asahi Shimbun, Ishiba, a former LDP secretary-general, was picked by 26 percent of respondents as the “most suited” to be the next LDP president.

Koizumi, a former environment minister, following at 21 percent, while Takaichi, the current economic security minister, was chosen by 11 percent.

Ishiba, who is running for the fifth time, is believed to be most popular among rank-and-file party members and supporters.

Koizumi, who was expected to be the new face of the LDP, has lost momentum since the campaign kicked off.

Takaichi, known for her strong conservative stance, is gaining traction among right-leaning members and supporters.

In a separate Asahi survey of LDP members, Koizumi gained the most support from party lawmakers. He is backed by key figures, such as LDP Acting Secretary-General Seiji Kihara, who is a close aide to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and trade minister Ken Saito, who had considered running himself.

However, many LDP lawmakers, particularly in the Upper House, remain undecided, leaving the outcome still unpredictable.

Other candidates in the race include: Takayuki Kobayashi, 49, a former minister in charge of economic security, who belongs to the Nikai faction; Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, 63, who belonged to the now-dissolved Kishida faction; and Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, 71, who was also a member of the Kishida faction.

The three other candidates are: former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato, 68, a member of the Motegi faction; Digital Transformation Minister Taro Kono, 61, an Aso faction member; and LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi, 68, who heads the Motegi faction.

In the first round of the election, 368 votes will be cast by party Diet members. An equal amount of 368 votes will be distributed proportionally among local party members and LDP supporters from Japan’s 47 prefectures.

If no candidate wins a majority, a runoff will be held between the top two finishers, and all Diet members will vote again.

But only one vote will be allocated to each of the 47 prefectural branches. These votes will be awarded to the candidate who garnered more local ballots in the first round.

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