THE ASAHI SHIMBUN
October 29, 2024 at 18:24 JST
Yuichiro Tamaki, president of the opposition Democratic Party for the People, speaks after the Oct. 27 Lower House election. (Kazuhiro Nagashima)
The Democratic Party for the People remains the third-largest opposition party in Japan, but its sharp gains in the Lower House election have made it the talk of the town in the political world.
The DPP quadrupled its strength in the Oct. 27 election and now holds 28 seats in the Lower House.
Now, with no party holding a majority in Lower House, the DPP is expected to be at the center of negotiations and wheeling and dealing ahead of the Diet vote next month on naming the prime minister.
The DPP was apparently a popular pick among younger voters.
But the rapid growth of the party even caught DPP chief Yuichiro Tamaki and other party leaders off-guard.
In the proportional representation part of the election, in which voters choose parties, the DPP won a total of five seats in the Kita-Kanto and Tokai blocs.
But the DPP did not list enough candidates on its proportional representation list, so it was forced to concede one seat each to the Liberal Democratic Party, Komeito and the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.
Tamaki’s confidence has grown since the election.
At a news conference on Oct. 28, he said the DPP has not changed its “solutions rather than confrontation” message.
Critics have said the CDP only complains about the policies of the ruling LDP without offering alternative solutions.
Tamaki said the DPP, as a reform and centrist political party, takes a policy-oriented approach.
“We have been criticized for siding with the ruling party,” Tamaki said. “But we have shown that we can increase the number of seats in the Diet with this kind of approach.”
The LDP’s fund-raising scandal was a big issue in the election, and CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda hammered the party over the matter during the campaign.
Meanwhile, the DPP’s campaign slogan was “increasing take-home pay.”
It emphasized measures to raise the income tax threshold from 1.03 million yen ($6,735) to 1.78 million yen, as well as steps to reduce social insurance premiums.
The income tax threshold is the point at which a person is no longer considered a dependent for tax purposes and is subject to income tax.
The DPP also appealed for free education.
A 38-year-old man who runs an IT company said he voted for the DPP.
“I like Noda, but I am not interested in the issue of politics and money,” he said. “Political reforms will not change our lives.”
A 24-year-old company employee who also voted for the DPP said, “I saw a video of DPP leader Tamaki on X and thought that what he was saying was somewhat reliable.”
On the final day of the campaign, Tamaki delivered a speech near JR Tokyo Station that drew in about 2,000 people, according to a campaign staffer.
POLICY PUSH
The LDP-Komeito coalition lost its majority in the Lower House vote, and the LDP is already seeking cooperation with opposition parties to maintain power.
Tamaki knows that the election results put the DPP at an advantage.
“We have received support for our policies,” he said. “We will realize our policies with stronger negotiating power than ever before.”
At a news conference on Oct. 29, Tamaki once again ruled out joining the LDP-Komeito coalition, saying: “We will do our utmost to realize our policies. There will be no coalition.”
But he indicated cooperation could be possible on a policy-by-policy basis.
He said that raising the “annual income threshold” is the top policy issue that the DPP would ask the LDP to realize, noting that it is the DPP’s original policy and the one it put forth in the election.
“This is what (voters) are hoping for and why they voted for us,” Tamaki said.
The DPP leader has also said policy would determine if the party would cooperate with the CDP.
“If we do not agree on foreign and security policies, energy policies, and the Constitution issue, it will be difficult to cooperate with (the CDP),” he said earlier.
While keeping a certain distance from both the LDP and the CDP, Tamaki is believed to be aiming for further advances in next summer’s Upper House election.
After meeting with Tomoko Yoshino, chairwoman of Rengo (Japanese Trade Union Confederation) in Tokyo on Oct. 28, Tamaki told reporters: “The battle for the Upper House election has already begun. We will make preparations without fail, including the fielding of candidates.”
According to a source, a senior DPP official told a senior official of the CDP, “President Tamaki has become quite serious.”
POPULAR AMONG YOUNG VOTERS
In the proportional representation part of the election, the DPP received 11.3 percent of all votes cast, more than double the 4.5 percent it gained in the previous 2021 Lower House election, according to preliminary figures.
An Asahi Shimbun exit poll shows that the DPP was particularly popular among the younger generation.
Among voters in their 20s, 26 percent picked the DPP, tops among all parties. The ratio for the DPP in the 2021 Lower House election for this age group was 9 percent.
Twenty percent of voters in their 20s picked the LDP on Oct. 27, down from 40 percent in the previous election.
By sex, 29 percent of men in their 20s chose the DPP, up from 9 percent previously.
Among those in their 30s, the DPP received 21 percent of their votes, triple the 7 percent it gained in the 2021 election.
The LDP also received 21 percent of votes in this age group, but the ratio was down from 37 percent.
The support base for the DPP grew to 6 percent of all voters in the Oct. 27 election from 2 percent in 2021.
And 89 percent of those supporters voted for the DPP, up from 80 percent.
The LDP’s support base represented 33 percent of voters, down from 41 percent. But many who called themselves LDP supporters showed their dissatisfaction with the party by choosing different parties in proportional representation.
Six percent of LDP supporters voted for the DPP, up from 2 percent in 2021.
Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party) had a support rate of 7 percent, down slightly form, 9 percent in 2021.
Three percent of Nippon Ishin supporters voted for the DPP on Oct. 27, up from 1 percent in 2021.
Unaffiliated voters accounted for 18 percent of all voters, an increase from 15 percent in the previous election.
Sixteen percent of them voted for the DPP, double the 8 percent seen in 2021.
The CDP gained the most support from unaffiliated voters, at 22 percent, nearly the same as 21 percent in 2021.
The LDP received 14 percent of ballots from unaffiliated voters, down from 19 percent, while Nippon Ishin gained 11 percent, down from 18 percent.
(This article was compiled from stories written by Nozomi Matsui, Hiroshi Kimijima and Yuki Nikaido.)
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