Photo/Illutration Ichiro Matsui, left, the leader of Nippon Ishin, and Hirofumi Yoshimura, deputy leader of the party, speak to reporters in Osaka following the Lower House election on Oct. 31, 2021. (Takaharu Yagi)

Opposition party Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party) is gaining steam ahead of the Upper House election this summer, a new poll showed.

According to The Asahi Shimbun mail-in poll, 17 percent of respondents said they will vote for Nippon Ishin, compared to the 6 percent in a survey conducted before the previous Upper House election three years ago. 

The result indicates that Nippon Ishin could increase its seats in the Upper House poll. 

The survey asked voters which party they will choose in the proportional representation segment of the Upper House election if voting was held today.

Forty-three percent said they would choose the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, followed by the 17 percent for Nippon Ishin.

They were followed by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan with 14 percent, 5 percent for Komeito, 4 percent for the Japanese Communist Party, 3 percent for the Democratic Party for the People, 2 percent for Reiwa Shinsengumi and 1 percent for the Social Democratic Party.

The percentages for the other parties remain virtually unchanged from the previous survey in 2019, except for the main opposition CDP, which fell by 3 percentage points from 17 percent.

When asked which party they voted for in the proportional representation segment of the Lower House election last fall, 37 percent said they backed the LDP. That was followed by the CDP with 15 percent, Nippon Ishin with 13 percent, Komeito with 7 percent, the JCP with 4 percent, the DPP with 2 percent, Reiwa Shinsengumi with 2 percent and the SDP with 1 percent.

The electoral systems for the Lower House and Upper House elections differ and poll results about the elections for the two chambers cannot be easily compared.

However, the Asahi Shimbun polls indicate that both the LDP and Nippon Ishin are gaining momentum ahead of the Upper House election.

As for which party they voted for in the Lower House election and which party they will support in the Upper House election, 86 percent of those who voted for the LDP in the Lower House poll said they would choose the same party in the Upper House poll.

Eighty-one percent of those who voted for Nippon Ishin said they would continue to support the party.

In contrast, the survey showed that respondents who would keep voting for the CDP stands at only 67 percent. Nine percent of those who voted for the CDP said they would choose the LDP and another 9 percent said they would choose Nippon Ishin this time. Three-fourths of those who voted for the JCP said they would continue voting for the party.

Sixty-six percent of those who voted for Komeito said they would choose the same party, while 17 percent said they would vote for the LDP and 10 percent said they would opt for Nippon Ishin.

Komeito supporters, who are known for their solid organizational voting in elections, seem not so strongly united for the Upper House election.

The Asahi Shimbun conducted the nationwide survey among a randomly selected 3,000 voters and chose 334 voting districts as a microcosm of the nation. An average of nine people were selected from among eligible voters of each voting district.

The survey was sent out by mail on March 15 and received 1,988 responses by April 25, for a response rate of 63 percent.

Valid responses were received from 1,892 respondents, excluding those who left many questions unanswered or were otherwise ruled ineligible.

20220502-poll-G-L
The Asahi Shimbun

Related News