After failing to form a united front against the ruling coalition in the Lower House election, opposition parties are once again discussing cooperation, but this time after the removal of a high hurdle.

The parties aim to ride their momentum at the expense of the coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito, which lost its majority in the vote.

However, old rivalries and differences in ideology could resurface in the opposition bloc, aggravating the uncertainty in Japan’s new political landscape.

The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan secured 148 seats, up sharply from the 98 seats it held before the election.

It was the first time an opposition party has won more than 100 seats in a Lower House election since the now-defunct Democratic Party of Japan bounced the coalition from power in 2009.

The DPJ also won 113 seats in the 2005 Lower House election.

The Oct. 27 election was the first for the CDP under Yoshihiko Noda, who became party president in September. Noda was the DPJ prime minister when the LDP regained power in 2012.

Noda’s election goal for the CDP was to win the most seats in the Lower House and break the ruling coalition’s majority.

His strategy was to broaden the party’s wing to include “moderate conservatives” while retaining the CDP’s traditional liberal base of supporters.

Specifically, he wanted to attract conservative voters who have grown fed up with the LDP and its money scandals.

Noda also criticized Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s abrupt decision to dissolve the Lower House and hold a snap election as an attempt to bury the LDP’s fund-raising scandal.

“Regime change is the greatest political reform,” Noda said.

He plans to intensify his pursuit of answers in the money scandal and to press the LDP to once again revise the Political Fund Control Law to prohibit corporate and group donations and abolish political activity expenses.

To achieve this, Noda hopes to strengthen the CDP’s cause through political realignment that brings other opposition parties on board.

BARGAINING BEGINS

On the morning of Oct. 28, Noda visited Tomoko Yoshino, chairwoman of Rengo (Japanese Trade Union Confederation) at its headquarters in Tokyo. He expressed his gratitude for Rengo’s election support.

After the meeting, Noda was asked by reporters about the CDP’s plans concerning a supplementary budget proposal that the Ishiba administration is expected to make in the near future.

“Cooperation among opposition parties comes first before talking with the LDP and Komeito,” he said.

Noda said he would “be mindful of how to build a team here” and indicated he would first discuss the matter with the Democratic Party for the People, which surged in strength in the election.

After a CDP executive board meeting, Junya Ogawa, the party secretary-general, said at a news conference that CDP leaders have reached a consensus to carefully call on other opposition parties to cooperate in various ways.

“Based on this premise, we would like to make various adjustments in the future,” Ogawa said.

DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki also visited Yoshino at Rengo’s headquarters in the morning also to express gratitude for the election support.

After the meeting, Tamaki said that he told Yoshino: “(The DPP) will not join the (ruling) coalition. If there are good policies, we will cooperate, and if there are bad ones, we will say no.”

Asked about the possibility of cooperating with the CDP, Tamaki told reporters, “It is essential to be consistent with our basic policies.”

Before the election campaign started, Noda had indicated that it would be preferable if the opposition parties united behind single candidates to create “one-on-one” confrontations with coalition candidates in electoral districts.

But negotiations among the parties were not arranged.

PAST ARRANGEMENTS

In the previous Lower House election in 2021, the CDP formed an opposition coalition with the Japanese Communist Party, the DPP, Reiwa Shinsengumi, and the Social Democratic Party.

In contrast, in the Oct. 27 election, only 46 of the 289 electoral districts involved such one-on-one battles against coalition candidates.

The CDP battled against the JCP in 142 electoral districts. In 115 electoral districts, CDP candidates clashed against those from Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party).

The CDP has had a particularly rocky history with the JCP on election cooperation.

In the 2021 election, when the CDP and the JCP reached a framework agreement on “limited cooperation outside the Cabinet,” the LDP and others ridiculed the alliance as the “Constitutional Communist Party of Japan.”

The CDP lost seats in the election.

But in April this year, the CDP and the JCP fought together and swept three Lower House by-elections.

The two parties worked in cooperation in the Tokyo gubernatorial election held in July to support Renho, a former CDP Upper House member. She placed a disappointing third.

The JCP is said to be able to secure 10,000 to 20,000 votes in each electoral district nationwide.

But regarding the strategy for the Oct. 27 election, the CDP decided to go with Noda’s shift.

“Targeting moderate conservative voters would have a greater reach than targeting JCP voters,” according to a top CDP official.

Like the CDP, the origin of the DPP is also in the DPJ.

The DPP has adopted a strategy of differentiating itself from the CDP by advocating “solutions rather than confrontation.” It has also advocated constitutional revision.

The DPP quadrupled its seats from seven to 28 in the election.

It is believed to have attracted a large portion of conservative voters who have turned their backs on the LDP due to the money scandal, as well as some unaffiliated voters.

The DPP has sometimes cooperated with the LDP and Komeito in the Diet.

Its gains in the Lower House will make it an attractive political partner.

IN DEMAND

Tamaki had set a target of “winning at least 11 seats,” the number the party won in the previous 2021 Lower House election.

During the campaign, Tamaki called for hikes in take-home pay and an increase in the income tax threshold.

A special Diet session will be held within 30 days of the Oct. 27 election. Both the Upper House and the Lower House will nominate candidates for prime minister.

If the first round of voting does not result in a majority victory, a runoff will be held between the top two vote-getters.

Tamaki told reporters after meeting with Yoshino that he would not vote for Noda if the CDP leader reaches a runoff.

Tamaki said he would “write Yuichiro Tamaki” as the nominee for prime minister in the Diet.

(This article was compiled from stories written by Takahiro Okubo and Nozomi Matsui.)