In a major blow to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner, Komeito, lost control of the Lower House on Oct. 27.

The ruling bloc saw its 279-seat pre-election strength significantly weakened to 215 seats, falling below the majority, which is 233.

This is the first time since the 2009 Lower House election, in which the Democratic Party of Japan came to power, that the LDP, which formerly held 247 seats and Komeito 32, have fallen short of a majority.

Of the 46 candidates who were involved in the LDP faction’s money scandal, 28 fell to defeat, while 18 were re-elected.

Komeito leader Keiichi Ishii, who replaced longtime party leader Natsuo Yamaguchi as party president on Sept. 28, was also defeated.

The results call into question the responsibility of Ishiba, the LDP president, who called for the snap election after taking office on Oct. 1. 

Ishiba had stated that his election goal was for the ruling coalition to take a majority of seats in the Lower House. The prime minister is likely to seek to expand the framework of cooperation with other opposition parties to form a coalition government.

One of the beneficiaries of the votes critical of the LDP administration that were cast was the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.

The party, led by former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, won 148 seats, a substantial increase from the 98 seats it previously held.

The Democratic Party for the People, led by Yuichiro Tamaki, quadrupled its pre-election strength, which was seven seats, to 28 seats.

Meanwhile, Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party) saw its number of seats fall from 44 to 38.

Voter turnout for the electoral district portion of the election tallied 53.11 percent, according to an estimate by The Asahi Shimbun.

The final figure is expected to be lower than the 55.93 percent in the previous 2021 Lower House election.

The number of women elected reached a record high 73, accounting for 15.7 percent of the total.

Some incumbent Cabinet ministers were unsuccessful in their re-election bids.

In the Saitama No. 5 district, Justice Minister Hideki Makihara was defeated while farm minister Yasuhiro Ozato lost in the Kagoshima No. 3 district.

Initially, some within the LDP believed that the ruling coalition would be able to retain its majority.

Ishiba was chosen as the “face of the election,” replacing former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, whose approval rating remained low. But the election results show that the new leader failed to win the confidence of the public.

A total of 46 candidates who were involved in the LDP faction’s money scandal ran in the election—all in electoral districts and not in proportional districts.

Of the 46, 12 ran as an independent candidate, as many did not receive an official endorsement from the LDP as part of the punishment.

Of the 12, their fates were divided.

Koichi Hagiuda, former LDP Policy Research Council chair who was one of the “big five” influential members of the Abe faction, won in the Tokyo No. 24 district.

Yasutoshi Nishimura, the former economy minister who was also a big five member, won in the Hyogo No. 9 district.

Hiroshige Seko, former secretary-general of the LDP’s Upper House caucus who was also a big five member, won in the Wakayama No. 2 district. He left the LDP after the scandal.

Hirokazu Matsuno, a former chief Cabinet secretary who was also in the big five, won in the Chiba No. 3 district.

On the other hand, big five member Tsuyoshi Takagi, former chairperson of the LDP Diet Affairs Committee, fell to defeat in the Fukui No. 2 district.

Hakubun Shimomura, a former education minister, was also defeated in the Tokyo No. 11 district.

For Komeito, Ishii is a veteran lawmaker who had been elected a number of times in the proportional district representation. 

But in this election, Ishii for the first time ran in an electoral district, from the Saitama No. 14 district. He fell to defeat. 

Komeito also struggled mainly in the electoral districts in the Kansai region, where the party-backed candidates faced head-to-head clashes with Nippon Ishin-backed candidates.

As the result, the party won only 24 seats, a decrease from the 32 seats it previously held.

During the campaign, CDP leader Noda said his party’s goal was to break the ruling coalition’s majority.

Noda had stated, “Regime change is the greatest political reform.”

The CDP won 148 seats, although it was not enough for it to gain the largest number of seats in the Lower House.

The DPP capitalized on its focus on economic policies, calling for increased take-home pay through consumption tax cuts and reductions in social insurance premiums.

(This article was written by Takuro Chiba and Nobuhiko Tajima.)