Two opposition parties are recalibrating their strategic maneuvers to remain relevant in the political world after the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election.

The winner of the Oct. 4 vote is expected to become Japan’s next prime minister. But the LDP-Komeito coalition will still be in the minority in the Diet, meaning that additional partners may be courted to stabilize its governance.

Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party) appears eager to fill that role while the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) want to avoid being pushed into obscurity on the sidelines.

POLICIES AS BARGAINING CHIPS

In preparation for potential coalition talks, Nippon Ishin has packaged its core policies, including the “secondary capital” initiative and proposed revision of pacifist Article 9 of the Constitution, to put pressure on the LDP.

“When it comes to values related to diplomacy, national security and the Constitution, Ishin and the LDP have always been relatively close,” Ishin leader Hirofumi Yoshimura, who is also Osaka governor, told reporters at the prefectural office on Sept. 29.

Yoshimura on Sept. 26 indicated to reporters that if the new LDP president approaches Ishin for coalition talks, he would be willing to respond.

But he emphasized that setting up a secondary national capital and reducing social insurance premiums would be absolute conditions for entering coalition talks.

On Sept. 18, Ishin released a proposal calling for the removal of the second paragraph in Article 9, which prohibits Japan from maintaining military forces and denies the nation the right of belligerency.

Ishin’s proposal fully endorses Japan’s right to exercise collective self-defense and explicitly states the establishment of a “national defense force.”

The party on Sept. 19 also submitted its proposed policy on foreign residents to Justice Minister Keisuke Suzuki, and it plans to soon finalize its stance on anti-espionage legislation.

Ishin co-leader Fumitake Fujita has been conducting video interviews with LDP leadership candidates and releasing them online.

To gauge potential political alignment, he asks the candidates to clearly state their positions on Ishin’s policies.

The party’s behind-the-scenes activities are also intensifying.

Takashi Endo, Ishin’s Diet Affairs Committee chair, has held repeated meetings with senior LDP figures, including Vice President Yoshihide Suga and Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama, to exchange views on future governance.

“Depending on how the LDP moves, we might even write the name of the LDP president in the prime minister nomination vote (in the Diet),” an Ishin executive said.

SURVIVAL FLATTERY, SKEPTICISM

Behind Ishin’s thoughts of joining the coalition is its recent losses not only in national elections but also in local elections in its stronghold of Osaka.

Ishin leaders apparently believe that becoming part of the ruling coalition is the best way to survive and implement its policies.

However, not all of Ishin’s more than 700 local politicians share this vision. In fact, many of them remain staunchly opposed to the LDP.

One Ishin insider expressed anger at the party leadership, saying, “Are they planning to cozy up to the LDP and abandon the local politicians?”

Another senior member said the party leaders appear “a bit too eager.”

“If we join the coalition, there is a risk that Ishin will disappear,” the member said.

Skepticism was expressed outside of Ishin’s internal ranks.

“Ishin is openly signaling its desire to join the coalition, but is it really OK for them to become the ‘LDP Osaka branch’?” a senior official from another party asked.

DPP PUSHES BACK

DPP Secretary-General Kazuya Shinba frowned upon the idea of a coalition-Ishin alliance.

“If they are trying to secure a majority in Nagatacho just by playing the numbers game, then there’s no public will in that,” Shinba said.

Last year, the DPP made its presence felt by voting in favor of the fiscal 2024 supplementary budget in exchange for a coalition agreement to raise the income threshold for social benefits.

But the DPP could face political obscurity if it is ignored by the coalition after the LDP election.

“If the LDP, Komeito and Ishin form a stable government, the DPP will be sidelined and won’t be able to get any policies implemented,” a mid-level DPP member of the Upper House warned.

The lawmaker is urging DPP leadership to drive a wedge between the coalition and Ishin.

COUNTER TO ISHIN’S PLAN

One such wedge could be the “special autonomous cities” concept that the DPP began discussing on Sept. 25.

This proposal would allow designated cities to become independent from prefectural governments and take on their own administrative functions.

The DPP positions this as a counterproposal to Ishin’s “secondary capital” concept, which is focused on Osaka Prefecture.

“This is not a discussion aimed at concentrating capital functions in a specific region for the benefit of a specific party,” Shinba said at a news conference on Sept. 26, delivering a pointed jab at Ishin.

The DPP has gained momentum in recent elections by serving as a vehicle for anti-government votes.

While the party has shown a willingness to negotiate with the ruling coalition on individual policies, it continues to maintain a clear stance of opposition.

Still, DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki has not ruled out the possibility of joining the coalition.

On a TV program on Sept. 28, he said, “The more trust we build, the more options for cooperation will emerge.”

(This article was written by Shinkai Kawabe, Yuichi Nobira and Yuki Minami.)