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The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito lost its majority in the Lower House for the first time in 15 years, throwing control of the chamber into uncertainty.

With the more powerful Diet chamber almost equally divided between the ruling and opposition blocs, three scenarios look likely.

First, the ruling coalition may opt to forge a “partial alliance” with one or more opposition parties, depending on policy issues, such as budget proposals, bills and draft treaties.

In the Oct. 27 Lower House election, the LDP gained 191 seats and Komeito won 24 seats. The combined strength of 215 seats falls 18 seats short of a 233-seat majority.

Prospective alliance partners include Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party), which seized 38 seats, and the Democratic Party for the People, which garnered 28 seats.

DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki has said the party is prepared to cooperate with any political party on issues they can agree on.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who is the LDP president, also appears eager to negotiate with opposition parties on policy issues.

“We want to proactively incorporate (opposition parties’) policies where we are lacking or where we should make changes,” Ishiba told a news conference on Oct. 28.

History shows that the LDP could resort to more unorthodox tactics to secure a majority.

When the party failed to win a majority in a 1996 Lower House election, Hiromu Nonaka, the LDP acting secretary-general, poached lawmakers from the opposition New Frontier Party and “regained” a single-party majority.

A second alternative is to expand the coalition to include a new party.

Within the LDP, Nippon Ishin, the second largest opposition party, and the DPP, the third largest, have been floated as a potential junior partner.

But some officials of both parties remain reluctant to join the coalition, particularly because they have criticized the LDP over its money-in-politics scandal with other opposition parties.

The officials said becoming a third ruling coalition member would be tantamount to a betrayal of voters who cast ballots for them.

Still, the LDP made a surprise move to return to power in 1994, a year after its uninterrupted rule since its founding in 1955 ended.

The LDP formed a coalition government with its longtime rival Japan Socialist Party, the predecessor of the Social Democratic Party, and New Party Sakigake by installing JSP leader Tomiichi Murayama as prime minister.

The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan could forge a coalition of its own to replace the LDP-Komeito government.

For example, the CDP, Nippon Ishin, the DPP, Reiwa Shinsengumi, the Japanese Communist Party and the Social Democratic Party, plus independent Lower House members close to opposition, hold a combined 238 seats.

But the opposition parties have divergent views on a broad range of policy issues.

In 1993, the LDP was ousted from power by an eight-party coalition government led by Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa, founder of the Japan New Party.

However, the coalition splintered in eight months due to difficult policy coordination among the eight parties.

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