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The ruling coalition is in danger of losing its Lower House majority, as opposition parties have gained momentum ahead of the Oct. 27 election, an Asahi Shimbun survey showed.

The results of the weekend survey of eligible voters combined with an online poll indicate the long dominant Liberal Democratic Party could lose around 50 seats from its pre-election total of 247. That would leave the party well short of a 233-seat majority in the Diet chamber, a position it has held since regaining power in 2012.

Twelve politicians from the LDP are running as independents after the party withheld its endorsement due to their involvement in a recent political funding scandal. About half of these non-endorsed LDP candidates are expected to lose their seats.

A total of 465 seats are up for grabs in the election.

In single-seat districts, the LDP could see a reduction of around 40 seats from its pre-election count of 182, while in the proportional representation category, a decrease of about 10 seats from 65 is expected, according to the survey.

About 62 percent of Lower House members are elected from single-seat districts, while the rest are allocated based on the proportional representation earned by each party.

The LDP’s junior coalition partner, Komeito, held 32 Lower House seats before the official campaign kicked off on Oct. 15. According to the survey, Komeito’s strength could fall below 30 seats.

Six of Komeito’s nine seats in single-seat districts are now being contested by Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party), which has fielded candidates for the first time in these districts in Osaka and Hyogo prefectures.

In the proportional representation category, Komeito is projected to fall below its pre-election total of 23 seats.

CDP POISED FOR BIG GAINS

In contrast, the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan is expected to make significant gains, possibly reaching 140 seats, up from its pre-election strength of 98.

In single-seat districts, the CDP is likely to rise from 60 seats and approach 100. In the proportional representation category, it is projected to add to its pre-election total of 38 seats.

Nippon Ishin is unlikely to maintain its pre-election total of 44 seats and could possibly fall below 40.

In the single-seat districts, Ishin is expected to maintain its current 18 seats, but it is at risk of losing about 10 proportional representation seats from its pre-election total of 26, the survey showed.

The Japanese Communist Party aims to hold on to its one seat in single-seat districts, while it will likely exceed its pre-election total of nine seats in the proportional representation category.

Overall, the JCP could surpass its pre-election total of 10 seats.

The Democratic Party for the People is also poised for significant gains. It held seven seats but could control around 20 after the election.

In single-seat districts, the DPP is likely to double its pre-election total of four seats. In the proportional representation category, the party is projected to increase its seats by about 10 from three.

Other opposition parties are also gaining momentum.

Reiwa Shinsengumi is expected to see a sharp increase in the proportional representation category, surging from three seats before the election to around 10.

The Japan Conservative Party has the potential to secure around three seats, while Sanseito has a chance of obtaining seats in the proportional representation category.

The Social Democratic Party is uncertain about whether it can secure even one seat in the single-seat districts.

The nationwide survey conducted over the weekend used randomly generated phone numbers to yield 19,633 valid responses.

The Asahi Shimbun also commissioned four research firms to conduct an online survey, yielding 342,591 valid responses nationwide.

Estimates for the single-seat districts were made based on the online poll, while the proportional representation predictions were derived from the telephone survey.

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