Photo/Illutration Voters cheer on a candidate at a rally in Tokyo. (Naoko Kawamura)

The ruling coalition will likely win a majority of seats contested in the July 10 Upper House election, and gains are expected from opposition Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party), an Asahi Shimbun survey showed.

The nationwide telephone and internet survey found that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and junior coalition partner Komeito appeared on their way to win close to 63 of the 125 seats up for grabs.

A lack of electoral cooperation among the opposition camp has created a high hurdle for opposition parties in the 32 single-seat prefectural districts.

The survey found that the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan will face difficulties holding on to its 23 seats that are now being contested in the election.

However, Nippon Ishin, which has six Upper House seats being contested, could end up with double that number on July 10.

Still, half of the respondents in the survey had not made up their minds about who to vote for in prefectural districts, while 40 percent were still uncertain about how to vote in the proportional representation constituency.

Upper House elections are held once every three years, with half of the seats contested in an election. There are 125 seats up for grabs this year because of a by-election in Kanagawa Prefecture.

The LDP has 36 seats in the prefectural districts that are being contested, but the party looks like it could exceed that number.

Electoral cooperation among opposition parties in the Upper House elections in 2016 and 2019 led to the opposition camp winning 11 seats six years ago and 10 three years ago.

But cooperation is lacking this time around, and only one “unified” opposition candidate in the prefectural districts appears to have a slight lead.

LDP candidates are in close races in six prefectures where the opposition candidate won the seat six years ago.

The ruling party also looks set to pick up more than one seat in such multiple-seat prefectures as Chiba, Tokyo and Kanagawa.

Komeito candidates in five prefectural districts appear to have a good chance of winning, the survey showed.

While the CDP faces a tough time holding on to the 16 prefectural district seats it had before the election, the final outcome will depend on what happens in the close single-seat district races.

Nippon Ishin has three seats in prefectural districts being contested, but the party is in a strong position to maintain two seats in Osaka and gain a seat each in Kanagawa, Aichi and Hyogo prefectures, the survey showed. Its candidate in Tokyo is also on the border of winning.

It also appears headed to a doubling of the number of seats it held in the proportional representation constituency.

The other opposition parties are facing a tougher time.

The Japanese Communist Party candidate in Kanagawa is slightly ahead, but its candidates in Saitama and Tokyo are in tight races.

Reiwa Shinsengumi could win a seat in Tokyo as well as two in the proportional representation constituency, the survey showed.

The Social Democratic Party, the party seeking to protect the public from Japan Broadcasting Corp. and Sanseito (political participation party) may have a chance to pick up a seat each in the proportional representation constituency.

The survey was conducted on June 22 and 23. Computer-generated phone numbers were used to contact voters through land lines or mobile phones. A total of 10,286 valid responses were received.

On the same two days, four internet survey companies were commissioned to poll voters, and valid responses were received from 80,549 voters.

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