Photo/Illutration The Asahi Shimbun

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party will likely lose some seats in the Oct. 31 Lower House election but will still secure a single-party majority in the Diet chamber, according to a weekend survey by The Asahi Shimbun.

The LDP, which had a pre-election strength of 276 seats, is poised to win more than 233 seats in the 465-member Lower House, the survey showed.

The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan will likely add to its pre-election strength of 109 seats, but it will not threaten the LDP’s grip on power largely because of the CDP’s failures so far in the proportional representation segment of the election.

It is still possible for the tide to change toward voting day.

Around 40 percent of respondents in the survey did not make their picks clear for single-seat districts, while 30 percent did not specify their preferred party in the proportional representation portion.

The survey was conducted on Oct. 23-24, contacting about 380,000 eligible voters across Japan.

The Asahi analyzed how each party is faring in single-seat constituencies through an online survey and in proportional representation blocs through a telephone poll, in addition to news gathering by reporters.

Up for grabs in the election are 289 seats for electoral districts and 176 seats in the proportional representation segment.

The survey found LDP-backed candidates were leading in 161 electoral districts, and could win close to 190 districts in the end.

The ruling party also appeared solid in the proportional representation portion, and may add four seats to its pre-election strength of 66 in that segment.

The LDP has maintained an absolute stable majority by controlling at least 261 seats in the Lower House since it returned to power in 2012.

Whether the party hits that mark again depends on the outcomes of 74 electoral districts where its candidates are fighting neck-and-neck battles with opposition candidates, according to the survey.

Komeito, a junior partner in the ruling coalition, is poised to maintain its pre-election strength of 29 seats, according to the survey.

The CDP will likely pick up some seats in electoral districts, compared with the current 48, and is in tight races in 65 other districts.

That includes the Saitama No. 5 district, where CDP chief Yukio Edano has found himself in a close contest with his LDP rival.

In the proportional representation portion, the CDP is predicted to lose at least 10 of the 61 seats it held before the election, the survey showed.

Nippon Ishin is gaining momentum and could triple its pre-election strength of 11 seats in total, according to the survey.

Its candidates are leading in 10 electoral districts, many of them in Osaka Prefecture.

As for the proportional representation segment, Nippon Ishin may capture seats in the Tokyo and southern Kanto blocs, beyond its power base in the Kinki region.

The Japanese Communist Party appears set to increase its overall pre-election strength of 12 by gaining more seats in the proportional representation portion.

The Democratic Party for the People will likely keep its eight seats held before the election, the survey showed. DPP candidates have the upper hand in four electoral districts.

Reiwa Shinsengumi is coming close to capturing a seat in the proportional representation segment in Tokyo, with its leader, Taro Yamamoto, at the top on the party’s candidate list.

The Social Democratic Party’s chances of winning either a single-seat district or a proportional representation seat are fifty-fifty, according to the survey.

N party, which opposes public broadcaster Japan Broadcasting Corp. (NHK), appears highly unlikely to gain a representative in the Diet.

The survey contacted voters through telephone and mobile phone numbers selected at random by computer, and it received 25,595 valid responses.

Four online research companies were commissioned to conduct the online portion of the survey. They received 353,868 valid responses.

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