Photo/Illutration Commuters pack Shibuya Station in Tokyo on March 11, 2011, after the Great East Japan Earthquake struck. (Asahi Shimbun file photo)

The government’s experts’ panel has released a new estimate of damage from a magnitude 7 or stronger quake striking directly under Tokyo.

In the worst-case scenario, about 18,000 people would die. While that is about 20 percent less than the estimate released 12 years ago, it did not reach the goal set back then to halve the number in a decade.

About 400,000 buildings would be destroyed or burned down, with two-thirds of the deaths linked to fires.

Fires in the wake of earthquakes have long been described as an Achilles’ heel in urban areas.

While reducing congested neighborhoods of wooden homes and expanding the width of narrow roads would be effective measures, that requires both money and time.

Efforts should be made about ways to increase disaster management for the entire area, such as creating communities where fires do not spread.

If people should overflow into the streets, that would interfere with firefighting activities. People could be crushed to death if crowds stopped moving.

During the Great East Japan Earthquake, about 5.15 million people in the greater Tokyo metropolitan area could not easily return home, causing major traffic jams on roads and disrupting mobile phone services.

Reducing the number of those unable to return home is an important issue to allow speedy rescue efforts.

After the 2011 earthquake, the government compiled guidelines that called for not trying to return home immediately after a temblor, and asked companies and local governments to encourage employees and visitors to remain in place for three days.

But the Cabinet Office is now revising those guidelines because new issues have emerged, such as the increase in foreign tourists and how to deal with major events that are being held when a natural disaster strikes.

One issue that has to be dealt with is securing facilities for temporary stays.

The Tokyo metropolitan government has designated public facilities, such as schools, as well as meeting rooms in private buildings to serve that function. The metropolitan government has signed agreements with companies to have them prepare food and water.

But so far, only enough space for about 500,000 people has been secured within Tokyo, which is only 76 percent of the total need estimated by the metropolitan government.

While further cooperation should be sought, many companies are hesitant about taking action due to the costs and space needed to stockpile supplies.

There will be a need to create an environment that makes it easier for companies to cooperate. These efforts could include revising laws to clearly establish that such company facilities would also be eligible for subsidies similar to evacuation centers and providing public support for the expedient restocking of supplies.

People may not be able to return home even if there is no direct damage to buildings.

After the July earthquake off Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula, railways suspended service due to tsunami warnings and the Kamakura city government in Kanagawa Prefecture allowed foreign tourists to stay in its assembly hall, but government workers faced difficulties dealing with a multitude of languages.

Many visitors were left stranded at the Osaka Kansai Expo in August when the subway stopped operations. While some pavilions were opened to such visitors, they did not receive the needed information.

Using such recent incidents as a reference point, new guidelines must include proposals for dealing with different scenarios.

There are many things companies have to do, such as selecting workers to serve as leaders for disaster management, deciding methods for making contact during emergencies, stockpiling three days’ worth of supplies and conducting training exercises.

A major quake could strike other cities besides Tokyo.

Companies and households will be called on to take as many measures as possible and pass on those preparations.

--The Asahi Shimbun, Dec. 22

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