Photo/Illutration A grower harvests ripe bunches of the premium Shine Muscat grape at a farm in Yamagata in September. (Koichi Anzai)

After two decades as Japan’s premier luxury grape, the hunger for Shine Muscat may be tapped out.

Once hailed for its sweet, seedless and easy-to-eat green berries, the variety has enjoyed explosive growth in cultivation and sales.

However, Shine Muscat now faces falling prices and shifting consumer preferences, prompting growers to search for the next standout variety.

In Yamanashi Prefecture, Japan’s top grape-producing region, farmers such as Masakiyo Tsuji of Tsuji Farm are considering a pivot.

On his one-hectare vineyard, Tsuji is weighing transitioning from Shine Muscat to Sunshine Red, a vivid red grape with a floral aroma, which was developed by the prefecture and registered in 2022.

At local markets, Sunshine Red has been selling better than Shine Muscat, which is about 20 percent cheaper. 

“People might be getting tired of Shine Muscat,” Tsuji said.

Originally developed by a state institution and registered in 2006, Shine Muscat quickly gained popularity for its strong sweetness, seedless nature and ease of cultivation.

By 2022, its production area had ballooned to more than 2,670 hectares–over 1,300 times its size in 2007–surpassing even the long-reigning Kyoho grape.

At Tokyo’s Central Wholesale Market, Shine Muscat accounted for more than half of all grape transactions last year, with over 8,150 tons sold and a total value of 16 billion yen ($104 million).

Yet the average price per kilogram has dropped by more than 7 percent since 2020, reaching 1,964 yen ($12) in 2024.

Experts point to a growing price divide. A premium-quality Shine Muscat bunch, with large, glossy berries, can fetch 5,000 yen or more--sometimes more than double that--at retail, particularly when sold as gifts.

But lower-grade bunches with an uneven size or poor coloration are often sold for just a few hundred yen.

At a grape competition held in September by the online farmers market Tabe Choku, researchers and producers evaluated around 70 entries from across Japan.

The top prize went not to Shine Muscat, but to Sunshine Red--dubbed “the red jewel” for its striking appearance and growing appeal.

According to organizers, many growers are now scouting for the next trend in premium grapes, with red varieties gaining popularity for their visual appeal and market potential.

One such contender is Fuji no Kagayaki, a super-premium grape, which was developed by the Shimura Grape Research Institute in Yamanashi Prefecture about eight years ago.

Fuji no Kagayaki, a crossbreed with Shine Muscat, features large, dark berries and a high sugar content, selling for tens of thousands of yen per bunch. Production is gradually expanding.

Still, institute head Akio Shimura warns that widespread cultivation--like that of Shine Muscat--can lead to inconsistent quality and flavor across producers.

“To remain ahead, we must think not just about the next variety, but the one after that,” he said, emphasizing the need for continuous innovation in grape breeding.

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