Photo/Illutration Sanae Takaichi, the Liberal Democratic Party president, prepares to meet with reporters on Oct. 10 after her meeting with Komeito head Tetsuo Saito. (Wataru Sekita)

The abrupt collapse of the ruling coalition has opened up the field for a new prime minister at the last minute.

Staunch conservative Sanae Takaichi seemed likely to take that role following her victory in the Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership race on Oct. 4.

But junior coalition partner Komeito threw a fly in the ointment on Oct. 10 by dissolving its 26-year partnership with the LDP over its frustration at not having its voice heard in decision-making.

Tetsuo Saito, the Komeito head, said afterward that he told Takaichi his party would not back her in the Lower House vote for prime minister. Voting is expected to be held on Oct. 20.

The position was made vacant after the incumbent, Shigeru Ishiba, bowed to months of pressure to quit over the party’s disastrous showing in two national elections under his watch.

The LDP holds only 196 seats in the Lower House. If no lawmaker receives a majority of votes, a runoff would be held between the top two vote-getters.

Saito stayed mum on what Komeito might do in such a situation.

The shift in the political landscape opens the possibility of the opposition camp rallying behind a joint candidate and picking the new prime minister.

The three major opposition bloc players--the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party) and the Democratic Party for the People--have a combined 210 seats in the chamber. And Komeito holds 24 seats.

Pointing to the opposition’s stronger numbers, CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda noted on Oct. 10 that his party, like pacifist-leaning Komeito, is centrist and shares many commonalities. 

POWER PLAYS

Jockeying has already begun behind the scenes.

A CDP executive said the opposition now held the initiative for determining who would become prime minister.

Jun Azumi, the party’s secretary-general, is trying to bring about a united opposition front. He said the party would not insist on having Noda, who is 68 and a former prime minister, become the unified opposition candidate.

He added that DPP head Yuichiro Tamaki would be a viable candidate.

However, Kazuya Shinba, the DPP secretary-general, expressed doubts about CDP’s commitment to reform.

Hirofumi Yoshimura, the Nippon Ishin head, also poured cold water on the possibility of the CDP and DPP seeing eye-to-eye.

With the LDP severely weakened, a DPP executive ruled out any chance of the party joining an LDP-led coalition.

The LDP at one time reached out to the DPP as the prime party to join an expanded coalition.

Takaichi could still eventually be chosen as prime minister if the opposition fails to stand behind a single candidate.

But without Komeito, the LDP would be in an even more precarious position in the Diet. A Takaichi-led administration would find it almost impossible to pass any policy proposals.

The new arrangement also makes it more likely that a no-confidence resolution in the Lower House against the Takaichi Cabinet would pass.

Those close to Takaichi said the only alternative would be to dissolve the Lower House toward the end of the year and hold a snap election after a supplementary budget to deal with surging consumer prices was passed.

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