Sanae Takaichi’s victory in the Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election opened the door for a ruling coalition partnership with the opposition Democratic Party for the People.

Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party) had been seen as potential partner, but its LDP ally, Shinjiro Koizumi, lost to Takaichi in a runoff.

A day after the Oct. 4 LDP election, DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki hinted at the possibility of his party teaming up with the LDP-Komeito coalition.

“Discussions about the framework of the administration and various policy negotiations are emerging, but these are matters that should be handled carefully,” Tamaki said on Oct. 5 in Koriyama, Fukushima Prefecture.

At her inaugural news conference as LDP president, Takaichi expressed enthusiasm for expanding the coalition framework.

“If we can have discussions on constitutional reform, diplomacy and security, and fiscal policy, and reach a mutual understanding, I’d be happy to form such a framework,” she said.

Takaichi is widely expected to be voted in as Japan’s next prime minister in the Diet. She will inherit a minority government that will need opposition cooperation to pass bills and budgets.

However, moves are already being made for political cooperation.

Koichi Hagiuda, former LDP policy chief who supports Takaichi, told associates that negotiating with DPP Secretary-General Kazuya Shinba “is the work I should do.”

Former Prime Minister Taro Aso, now supreme adviser of the LDP, held a private meeting with Shinba in Tokyo on Oct. 6. The 30-minute discussion reportedly focused on political cooperation between the LDP and DPP and expanding the framework of the ruling coalition.

Before the LDP leadership election, many within the party assumed Ishin would be an easy target for a partnership because it appears desperate to revive its political strength.

Ishin expected a Koizumi victory would give it a chance to realize such policies as creating a “secondary capital” behind Tokyo and reducing social insurance premiums.

On Sept. 24, at the National Diet Library in Tokyo’s Nagatacho district, Takashi Endo, Ishin’s Diet Affairs Committee chair, bowed to LDP Vice President Yoshihide Suga—Koizumi’s mentor—and asked, “Please act as a restraining force on Soka Gakkai.”

Suga has strong ties to Soka Gakkai, Japan’s largest lay Buddhist organization and the main support base of Komeito.

In national elections, Ishin and the LDP-Komeito coalition have repeatedly clashed on Ishin’s home turf of Osaka. Komeito, which originated in Osaka, has also strongly opposed Ishin joining the coalition.

Therefore, Ishin wanted Suga to pave the way for coalition talks.

Koizumi himself visited the Osaka Kansai Expo site in August and received VIP treatment from Hirofumi Yoshimura, Ishin’s leader and Osaka governor.

Within Ishin, there were even voices calling to write Koizumi’s name in the prime minister nomination vote during the extraordinary Diet session.

But all of those plans were based on the premise that Koizumi would become party president.

After he lost to Takaichi, Koizumi called Ishin executives to apologize for the defeat.

The DPP, once worried about an LDP-Ishin alliance, is now brimming with confidence.

“Takaichi’s side has no notable pipeline to Ishin,” a senior DPP official said with a grin. “We’re the only viable partner.”

A close aide to Takaichi also noted, “There are fewer electoral districts where candidate coordination is needed with the DPP than with Ishin.”

The LDP and DPP have a history of approaching each other for cooperation.

In 2022, under the Kishida administration, then-LDP Vice President Aso and Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi led behind-the-scenes coalition talks with Tamaki and Shinba, but the effort stalled.

This time, the DPP plans to maintain a cautious stance in policy discussions, sources said, and it may take several months for the DPP to decide whether to join the coalition.

That is because risks remain for the DPP.

The party has gained support by pushing LDP-led administrations on such issues as abolishing the old provisional gasoline tax and raising the ceiling on taxable income.

“If we join the LDP, we risk losing our supporters,” a mid-level DPP lawmaker warned.

An official of Rengo (Japanese Trade Union Confederation), which supports the DPP, said: “None of our union-backed lawmakers will follow the party into a coalition. It’ll just lead to a split.”