Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba showed a desire to cling to power even after defeats in the Lower House election of autumn 2024 and the July Upper House election pushed the ruling coalition into the minority in both chambers.

However, Ishiba finally has expressed his intention to step down.

He was pressured into making a decision as proponents of moving up the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election gained momentum for a decision on Sept. 8. Such a move would have, in effect, been a recall movement against Ishiba.

Over the 50 days since the Upper House election, the internal party struggle over Ishiba’s future created a political vacuum that stopped any move to deal with surging consumer prices.

The harsh view held by the people is directed at the LDP as a whole, leaving the party on the brink as a ruling party in this 70th anniversary of its founding.

The situation is not one that will restore public trust just because the head of the party is changing.

The selection of a new party leader will demonstrate how serious the LDP is about a drastic overhaul.

PRIORITY ON AVOIDING PARTY FRAGMENTATION

In his Sept. 7 news conference, Ishiba admitted that as the party head he was responsible for the Upper House election defeat.

In addition, he said the timing was right for him to resign since the tariff negotiations with the United States had concluded with U.S. President Donald Trump’s signing of a presidential order.

Ishiba said he wanted to avoid creating a decisive fragmentation in the party through the proposal to move up the party presidential election.

He added that one regret he had was not eliminating the distrust held by the people about the money scandal that has plagued the LDP.

It was obvious that Ishiba had little to stand on for remaining in power since voters twice in national elections did not give him a vote of confidence.

With the ruling coalition in the minority in both Diet chambers and even with his expression of wanting to address pressing issues, there was no assurance that the opposition would enter into discussions since Ishiba had lost the foundation for implementing policy.

Delaying the announcement of his intentions only prolonged the political stagnation.

Those who led the maneuvering to remove Ishiba were the anti-mainstream factions, including members of the faction once led by the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who damaged trust in the LDP through their accumulation of huge amounts of money through fund-raising parties.

Their moves only appeared to be an internal struggle with the aim of returning to power because they did not present a clear picture of how to resuscitate the party.

In the background to the public polls that showed support for Ishiba remaining as prime minister despite the election defeats was likely a public fed up with an LDP more concerned with a tempest in a teacup, rather than the people.

ISHIBA FAILED TO LIVE UP TO EXPECTATIONS

After about a year, the curtain falls on the Ishiba administration started on Oct. 1, 2024.

His predecessor, Fumio Kishida, abandoned plans to run in the party presidential election after losing the trust of the people for not dealing adequately with the money scandal.

After many years outside the mainstream, Ishiba was finally elected party president.

Since Abe’s second stint as prime minister, the ruling coalition has depended on its power in numbers to push forward with government management that tended to play down the importance of the Diet.

The public likely held the expectation that Ishiba would change such a political stance and expose all the negative aspects of the money scandal.

But after becoming prime minister, Ishiba quickly decided to dissolve the Lower House rather than engage in serious Diet debate.

That led to the ruling coalition losing its majority in the Lower House because it could not remove the distrust of voters regarding the money scandal.

While there were calls then for Ishiba to step down, he expressed his intention to remain in office.

He promised to engage in thoughtful deliberations in the Diet since the coalition was in the minority and chose the path of a partial coalition seeking the cooperation of opposition parties depending on the policy facing the Diet.

While there were some fruits from such efforts, such as passage of the budget, Ishiba was unable to deal with issues that have long awaited action, such as a review of political donations from companies and organizations and allowing husbands and wives to use separate surnames.

Ishiba also did not release a statement for this milestone year of the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II.

The expectations that the LDP would change gradually withered or ended with no action.

Ishiba’s responses to Diet questioning were carefully thought out. He spoke in his own words in making addresses at the memorial ceremonies marking the dropping of the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki as well as for the end of the war.

But with the general impression that it was unclear what Ishiba wanted to accomplish, which he himself admitted to, it was unlikely that he would regain the unifying force needed to move forward.

FOR THE LDP TO BECOME THE PEOPLE'S PARTY

In its recently released report about the Upper House election, the LDP cited as the primary cause for the result failing to stand by the people and provide them with peace of mind regarding their daily lives. The party also pledged to undertake a drastic overhaul.

In the process to select Ishiba’s successor, the LDP must display specific measures and a road map to accomplish such change to gain the understanding and sympathy of the public.

Discussions from a mid- to long-term perspective will be indispensable for the party to make clear how it intends to maintain the social security program and fiscal condition into the future.

These challenges will come amid not only the pressing issues of high consumer prices and the Trump tariffs, but also for dealing with a falling birthrate and a graying and declining population.

Distrust of politicians will likely only intensify if lawmakers criticized for their involvement in the money scandal as well as with the former Unification Church, now known formally as the Family Federation for World Peace and Unification, are allowed to return to positions of power without taking responsibility or apologizing.

Because the coalition does not hold a majority in either Diet chamber, there is no guarantee that the new LDP president will become the next prime minister.

The new leader must have the ability to reach wide-ranging agreements to realize the policies needed by the public even as the Diet becomes one where many different parties have some degree of strength.

In the Upper House election, parties that repeated xenophobic statements or called for tax cuts without mentioning where the revenue replacement would come from received a considerable number of votes.

Rather than directing arguments to sectors of society to regain the rock-solid conservative element that abandoned the LDP for other parties, we hope the party will engage in debate that is appropriate for one purporting to be a “people’s party” under the banner of toleration and inclusion.

--The Asahi Shimbun, Sept. 8