The world seems poised to plunge into an era of extreme chaos. The consequences of U.S. diplomacy under Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda cannot be fathomed right now.

Japan, like other nations, must urgently prepare for a far more fluid world and develop strategies for building a peaceful multilateral order that transcends traditional thinking.

The former Republican president, 78, emerged victorious in the knife-edge election against Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, 60.

CRISIS OF DEMOCRATIC GOVERNANCE

Trump’s victory marks a historic comeback. He previously won a four-year term in 2016. The public’s demand for economic regeneration and measures against illegal immigration was the driving force behind his latest triumph.

Virulent inflation in recent years that has left many Americans in economic straits delivered a heavy blow to the popularity of the current administration, including Harris. Anger over economic disparities among white working-class Americans and other groups who have been left behind by radical changes in the industrial structure once again formed a solid base of support for Trump.

In her presidential campaign, Harris focused on support for middle-class Americans and women’s rights, but her message failed to resonate sufficiently with voters. The dream of breaking the “glass ceiling” and electing America’s first female president did not materialize.

Trump continued to incite hatred over inequality and immigration, sending out messages calling for the exclusion of political enemies. The election outcome demonstrates the disturbing power of divisive politics. The tolerant pluralism on which the United States, a nation of immigrants, prides itself is in the process of degradation.

The campaign debates were marred by falsehoods and conspiracy theories. The political battle even saw an increase in incidents of politically motivated violence that included attempts on Trump’s life. The Democratic camp raised concerns about a crisis in democracy. The deterioration of American politics is evident.

As populist-style rabble-rousing politics originating in the United States becomes rampant globally, Americans have not found ways to combat this trend.

Vague but strong discontent fueled by the view globalization causes job losses and greater immigration is gaining momentum in Europe and elsewhere.

The divisions within U.S. society are deep. Trump pledged to be a “president for all Americans” at the party convention, and he must not forget this vow. He should consider how to achieve national reconciliation, backing away from his extreme rhetoric during the presidential race.

Trump is said to be planning to fill key administration positions with loyalists and confidants. He calls the Republican Party the “Trump Party,” and is apparently prepared to wield influence over the judiciary and monetary policies as well. The expansion of presidential powers poses a challenge to democratic governance based on the separation of powers.

DANGEROUS ‘FAITH IN POWER’

During the first Trump administration, some senior officials managed to curb the president’s excesses. The new Trump administration to be inaugurated in January must be careful not to merely follow the president but carefully consider whether its governance style and policy agenda can be justified under the Constitution. Both the legislative and judicial branches share a grave responsibility to oversee the presidency although the Republican Party has the majority in the Senate.

During his previous term, Trump took a slew of disruptive steps, such as withdrawing from the international framework for efforts to stem climate change and refusing to recognize the declaration issued by the Group of Seven summit. There will be much uncertainty surrounding U.S. diplomacy during his second term.

Trump’s style is to prioritize short-term deals over values like freedom and democracy and over alliances. He claims to exert pressure on both hostile and allied nations, presenting a challenge to countries and regions that have been dependent on alliances with Washington, such as Japan, South Korea and Europe.

Trump described Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a smart action, and intensified pressure against Iran, which has been in confrontation with Israel in the Middle East.

He has consistently placed faith in power, justifying military expansion, including beefing up nuclear capabilities.

In his campaign platform, Trump promised to impose a uniform maximum tariff of 20 percent on all imports, prompting Europe to prepare retaliatory measures. The Trump administration is likely to ignore the International Monetary Fund’s warning of a rapid slowdown in the global economy if the tariff hikes are implemented and continue turning its back on the free trade system.

The world is on the cusp of a new era of dangerous great competition in both military expansion and trade. The international community is at a crossroads: Will it return to a 19th-century style rivalry among major powers, or can it find a new order of coexistence?

What the world needs now is to put the brakes on the spread among nations of narrow-minded nationalism focused on their own interests. Countries, large and small, including the United States, cannot enjoy continued and stable prosperity on their own. This is true for China and Russia as well.

COLLABORATION TOWARD ‘RULE OF LAW’

There is no country that can replace the United States, which is still a dominant liberalist superpower. However, domestic political turmoil in the United States and Washington’s inward-looking diplomatic stance seem likely to persist.

Japan, South Korea, Western Europe, Australia, and Canada need to re-evaluate their foreign policies, given that they are heavily tilted toward bilateral relations with the United States, and deepen their mutual collaboration so they can exert a stabilizing role.

The sustainability and future effectiveness of various strategic dialogue frameworks institutionalized during the Biden administration that involve the United States, such as the Quad multilateral security framework of Japan, the United States, Australia and India, and the cooperation framework among Japan, the United States, South Korea and the Philippines, depend on proactive efforts by the countries other than the United States.

Reform of the United Nations is also an urgent issue. With the permanent members of the Security Council, including the United States, China and Russia, leaning toward me-first nationalism, strengthening the “rule of law” rather than the “rule of power” is an urgent task. This requires enhancing the functions of international organizations that promote international law and trade rules.

Japan should lead the way in creating an order that can effectively prevent conflicts by using all available multilateral frameworks and bilateral consultations. Moving away from isolationist thinking and cooperating on global issues is essential for the benefit of the United States and the world.

Tokyo needs to make serious efforts to convince the upcoming Trump administration of this fact.

--The Asahi Shimbun, Nov. 7