THE ASAHI SHIMBUN
October 2, 2024 at 18:00 JST
Shigeru Ishiba at a news conference on Oct. 1 (Naoko Kawamura)
Shigeru Ishiba appointed key allies to his newly inaugurated Cabinet to pursue his national security projects, but his plans face one formidable outside opponent: the United States.
The new prime minister, who was elected in the Diet on Oct. 1 just before his Cabinet was inaugurated, has expressed plans to revise the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement to make it “more equal” and to create an Asian version of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Regarding the SOFA treaty that stipulates the rights of U.S. forces in Japan, Ishiba said at an Oct. 1 news conference, “Revising SOFA will strengthen the Japan-U.S. alliance.”
Ishiba named close allies Takeshi Iwaya as foreign minister and Gen Nakatani as defense minister in his Cabinet. Both have previous experience as the nation’s defense chief and are ruling Liberal Democratic Party politicians with strong influence over security policy and the defense budget.
Ishiba also strengthened the push of his security plans with certain appointments in the prime minister’s office.
Akihisa Nagashima, a former vice defense minister, was named an aide to the prime minister.
Akihiro Tsuchimichi, a former vice minister of defense for international affairs who had served as Ishiba’s policy aide, was given the post of political secretary to the prime minister.
Ken Jimbo, a professor of security at Keio University, noted that Ishiba’s plans would require agreement and consent from other countries.
“Each country has to formulate its national defense policy according to its own priorities, and no country would immediately support the idea of creating an Asian version of NATO,” he said.
A senior official of the Foreign Ministry also sees little chance for the formation of an Asian NATO.
“The countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are too afraid of a backlash from China to participate,” the official said.
Ishiba’s idea for changing SOFA stems from his stint as defense chief in 2004, when a U.S. military helicopter crashed at Okinawa International University.
Although there were no civilian casualties, the U.S. military sealed off the crash site and refused to let Japanese authorities investigate.
Looking back on that time, Ishiba has often said: “The Okinawan police could not even enter (the crash site). Is this a sovereign nation?”
In seeking SOFA revisions to make Japan and the United States “equal” under the agreement, he suggested stationing the Self-Defense Forces in the U.S. territory of Guam.
At the Oct. 1 news conference, Ishiba reiterated that he “will build a training site for the SDF in the United States to strengthen the Japan-U.S. alliance.”
However, the U.S. side is expected to oppose any SOFA revision that deprives U.S. forces of their “privileges” in Japan.
In fact, the U.S. side has already shown a negative stance to Ishiba’s proposals.
At a news conference on Sept. 30, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said she had not talked to President Joe Biden about the proposed Asian version of NATO or the possible stationing of the SDF on Guam.
She said Washington is currently focused on strengthening the actual NATO.
The Biden administration has been pursuing an alliance policy in the Indo-Pacific region, seeking to strengthen ties with allies and friends, including Japan. However, it has been negative on the creation of an Asian version of NATO.
“In the past, (Ishiba) said things that are confusing,” said Michael Green, former senior director for Asian affairs at the U.S. National Security Council. “Almost nobody in Washington thinks that (an Asian version of NATO) is realistic.”
Some Japanese government officials have already voiced negative opinions about Ishiba’s security proposals.
“Consistency and continuity are important in diplomacy,” a senior official at the Foreign Ministry said.
A more equal SOFA would certainly be welcomed in Okinawa Prefecture, which hosts more than 70 percent of U.S. military facilities in Japan.
In 2009, after the LDP was ousted from power, hopes in the southern island prefecture were raised when Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama of the Democratic Party of Japan said the U.S. Marines Air Station Futenma would be relocated “at least outside the Okinawa Prefecture.”
That promise was never kept, and Hatoyama and his party faced a public backlash.
Some LDP officials worry about a repeat if Ishiba cannot revise SOFA.
One Cabinet member expressed strong concerns about Ishiba’s defense plans ahead of the Lower House election expected on Oct. 27.
“If we don’t fade out (the proposals) gradually, Yoshihiko Noda, the leader of the (main opposition) Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, and others will be licking their lips in anticipation.”
Ishiba also seems to understand the uphill battle of achieving his goals.
According to Iwaya and Nakatani, who met with Ishiba to accept their Cabinet appointments, the new prime minister did not give any special instructions regarding SOFA or an Asian version of NATO.
At the Oct. 1 news conference, Ishiba said he does not expect things to change overnight.
But he added: “That said, I don’t think we should give up at all. We will work steadily to revise the SOFA between Japan and the United States.”
(This article was written by Nobuhiko Tajima and correspondent Ryo Kiyomiya.)
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