While most lawmakers in Nagatacho shy away from broaching the subject of a “sovereign state,” Shigeru Ishiba, the newly elected president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, has made it a talking point. 

He has been repeatedly saying, “Japan is a sovereign and independent nation,” when giving speeches about his life's work on national security policies.

That is because Ishiba believes the current relationship between Japan and the United States is problematically one-sided. 

The roots of Ishiba's discontent trace to a U.S. military helicopter crash on the campus of Okinawa International University in August 2004 when he was serving as the director-general of the Defense Agency, the predecessor of the Defense Ministry. 

The U.S. military put the area around the helicopter under a lockdown for about a week after the accident.

What derailed Japan’s investigation into the crash was the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), which determines the status and the rights of the U.S. military in Japan.

“Okinawa prefectural police weren't even allowed to enter the site. All the parts of the helicopter were removed by the U.S. military. Is this nation really a sovereign state?” Ishiba said recently in reflecting on the incident.

IMMATURE POLITICAL SKILLS

The U.S. military in Japan has been involved in incidents and accidents without pause.

The local municipalities that host U.S. military bases have been seeking revisions to the SOFA, which restricts Japan’s sovereignty.

In a speech Ishiba gave in Naha, Okinawa Prefecture, on Sept. 17, he said, “We should at least start reviewing the SOFA. We need to take responsibility as a sovereign nation.”

What he believes is necessary to revise the SOFA is to amend the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, which is the basis for the agreement.

The Japan-U.S. Security Treaty is not a mutual defense treaty such as those between South Korea and the United States, or the Philippines and the United States.

Article 5 of the treaty imposes an obligation on the United States to defend Japan but Japan is not obligated to come to the assistance of the United States.

Instead, Article 6 of the treaty mandates that Japan provide bases to the U.S. military.

That is why Ishiba points out that the treaty is “the only asymmetric bilateral treaty in the world” and believes that Japan should work to change the pact to a mutual defense treaty and make the SOFA an equal status agreement.

“I believe that the Japanese people have procrastinated in thinking deeply about what independence is and what a sovereign state is,” Ishiba wrote in his book.

However, when it comes to realizing this change, significant difficulties are expected.

When the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty was revised by the Kishi Cabinet in 1960, provisions of the “Far East,” which states that the U.S. military can use bases in Japan for the stability of the "Far East," caused a stir.

The entire Kishi Cabinet member resigned en masse to take responsibility after the revision was approved.

The Japan-U.S. Security Treaty and SOFA are among the most significant political issues that can determine the fate of a Cabinet.

However, Ishiba’s political acumen is considered unskillful. 

He published his diplomatic policy on the website of Hudson Institute Inc., a research firm in the United States, on Sept. 27, the day he was elected as the new party president. 

In the publication, Ishiba advocated revisions to both the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty and SOFA, saying, “The time is ripe to change this ‘asymmetrical bilateral treaty.’”

Sources close to Ishiba said that his camp was originally considering announcing his policy goal during the party election campaign. In Japan, those views would probably be perceived as just the usual "Ishiba ramblings" of a politician who has long been on the scene. 

However, if his policies were presented as an aim for the next prime minister, that would raise concern and face consequences overseas.

It is possible that Ishiba will be deemed by the U.S. government as just expressing his personal view on current Japan-U.S. relations, before working to foster mutual trust between the governments of both nations.

Ishiba's naive political skills cannot avoid criticism. The new LDP president believes in telling the truth with courage and conviction. 

After gaining power, however, how he will realize attaining his desired goals in the actual political world will be tested.

(This article was written by Kohei Morioka and Naoki Matsuyama.)