The new Ishiba administration will almost certainly include a sprinkling of party veterans, long-time allies and those who helped engineer his election triumph.

But one name will be missing, that of his biggest rival, a staunch conservative and the initial frontrunner who fought tooth and nail until the very end.

Sanae Takaichi turned him down. For a while it looked like Japan’s next prime minister would be a woman, but Takaichi lost in the runoff vote. 

Shigeru Ishiba, 67, the new president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, did not have the luxury to sit back and savor his Sept. 27 victory, however.

Instead, he spent the following day making final adjustments to the party’s executive positions and ministerial appointments.

LIKELY KEY LINEUP

He is expected to appoint veteran Hiroshi Moriyama, 79, who chairs the party’s General Council, as new LDP secretary-general, the party’s No. 2 position.

Yoshimasa Hayashi, 63, who served as chief Cabinet secretary under outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, is expected to be reappointed to the position, which is a key post in the Cabinet.

Former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, 75, will serve as LDP vice president, sources said.

The new executive committee of the LDP will be inaugurated on Sept. 30. 

Ishiba is expected to be formally named prime minister at an extraordinary Diet session to be convened Oct. 1. The new Cabinet is expected to be formed the same day.

ELECTION OPTIONS

Ishiba has already begun preparations to dissolve the Lower House by the end of October for a snap election.

As things stand, campaigning for the Lower House election will likely kick off on Oct. 15 with voting to be held on Oct. 27.

If Ishiba agrees, as looks likely, to a debate with opposition party leaders at the Budget Committee and other sessions of the extraordinary Diet, the campaign will likely be moved back to Oct. 29 with voting on Nov. 10.

TAPPING TALENT

Moriyama has served in key party positions, as chair of the Diet Affairs Committee and chair of the Election Strategy Committee.

In September 2023, he was named chair of the General Council.

One of Moriyama’s strengths, his ability to coordinate and bring people together, meant he served as a pipeline between the ruling and opposition parties.

As chief Cabinet secretary, Hayashi will continue to function as the government’s most senior spokesman.

Hayashi’s ability to answer questions under fire makes him a highly valued asset. He and Ishiba are friends of many years standing, having held numerous study sessions on foreign affairs and security issues since they were young.

Hayashi ran in the LDP leadership election and came in fourth. It is believed that he and Kishida, who used to belong to the same faction, voted for Ishiba in the runoff election.

Suga is being tapped to become LDP vice president, replacing Taro Aso, 84, who himself is a former prime minister. Suga has indicated to those around him that he is willing to accept the post.

Suga supported former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, 43, in the presidential election. Koizumi, the son of hugely popular former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, finished third and failed to advance to the runoff election.

In the runoff election, Suga then supported Ishiba and contributed to Ishiba’s come-from-behind victory.

Ishiba does not have a strong base within the party, so he is expected to rely on Suga’s influence as a backer.

Former Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera, 64, is expected to be named as the party’s policy chief.

Onodera served twice as defense minister, is well versed in security policy and is close to Ishiba.

Koizumi will be named as chair of the LDP Election Strategy Committee. The aim is to put Koizumi, a household name, in charge of the election campaign, making him the “face of the party” in the Lower House election.

TAKAICHI

In the meantime, Ishiba approached Takaichi, 63, the economic security minister, about serving as the party’s chair of the General Council. She won the largest number of party members’ and other votes in the presidential election and competed in the runoff.

The chair of the General Council is responsible for the party’s final decision-making body regarding personnel matters and the submission of bills, and is one of the top three party officials. 

Ishiba felt it was important to appoint her to a key post so as to avoid internal party discord later. 

But she firmly declined the offer.

Those close to Takaichi said she had originally been reluctant to accept a post other than that of secretary general.

But Ishiba had already decided to appoint Moriyama.

According to sources, she was adamant, stating that she wanted “to give priority to appointing a lawmaker who has no experience in holding important positions.”

Thus, Ishiba is not expected to appoint Takaichi to a senior party post or key Cabinet portfolio.

For the chair of the General Council position, Ishiba is expected to appoint Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, 71. 

Farm minister Tetsushi Sakamoto will be named chair of the Diet Affairs Committee. 

Ishiba is expected appoint Keiichiro Tachibana, a 63-year-old Lower House member, and Kazuhiko Aoki, a 63-year-old Upper House member, to deputy chief Cabinet secretary positions.

Takeshi Iwaya, 67, a former defense minister, will be appointed foreign minister.

Both Iwaya and Ishiba have experience as defense ministers, and the two have been close. During the presidential election, Iwaya headed the Ishiba camp’s election task force. 

Katsunobu Kato, 68, a former chief Cabinet secretary, will be appointed finance minister.

Tetsuo Saito, 72, land minister, will be reappointed.