Shigeru Ishiba had been given the cold shoulder, given minor roles for someone of his stature, and given no chance early on to win the presidency of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

In fact, he was long considered the de facto leader of “intra-party opposition” within the LDP.

But after a scandal over unreported political funds embroiled various LDP factions, the “opposition” rose up and led to the victory of Ishiba, 67, as LDP president on Sept. 27.

He will be voted in as prime minister in an extraordinary Diet session.

Before the party election, Ishiba mentioned the real opposition party, now led by former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, to get his point across to potential voters in the LDP.

“The young (politicians in the LDP) only know about the (second) Abe administration and beyond. They don’t know how scary Noda is. If they underestimate (him), saying things like ‘the nightmare of the Democratic Party of Japan administration,’ then they will get backhanded blowback,” Ishiba said to those around him.

Noda on Sept. 23 was elected president of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.

Ishiba appeared to be praising Noda. But he was also alluding to a potential pitfall in the party.

In the 2012 LDP presidential election, Ishiba came out on top in the first round of voting with an overwhelming majority of local votes. But he was defeated by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in the runoff vote.

After Abe assumed the presidency, it was natural for him to nominate Ishiba as LDP secretary-general, the No. 2 post, to create a “united party.”

However, the relationship between the two, who originally differed in their positions on security and other issues, continued to be strained.

In 2014, Abe persuaded Ishiba to accept the post of regional development minister, saying it was a key policy of the administration. But the difference between the authority held by the secretary-general position and the new post was obvious.

Two years later, when Abe offered Ishiba the post of agriculture minister, Ishiba declined, shook his head and said: “Every administration ends one day. I have to prepare for the next one.”

He distanced himself further from the Abe administration and found himself positioned as the intra-party opposition.

Abe often referred to the era of the DPJ as a “nightmare” and insisted that Japan must never go back to such times.

The fact that Ishiba dared to praise Noda, who has returned to the party leadership, is the antithesis of the “Abe politics” of belittling others.

Ishiba attempted to change the Abe regime in the 2020 presidential election. But he came in last place.

He took responsibility for his defeat and resigned as chairman of the faction he had created.

His allies scattered because working with Ishiba would brand them as part of the intra-party opposition.

One view became prevalent in the LDP: “Ishiba will never become prime minister.”

However, the public didn’t give up on Ishiba.

Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyukai, or the Abe faction, the largest in the LDP, has produced four prime ministers since 2000—Yoshiro Mori, Junichiro Koizumi, Abe and Yasuo Fukuda.

But it was exposed that the long-prosperous faction was heavily involved in the funding scandal.

That led to a loss of public trust, and Ishiba, a long-time non-mainstream member, returned to the limelight.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s attempt to settle the scandal by punishing those involved and revising the Political Fund Control Law was met with skepticism from the public.

Only a year remains before the terms of Lower House members expire. And an Upper House election is coming up next summer.

To secure victory in those elections for his party, Ishiba will be tasked with breaking away from the “slackness and complacency” apparently caused by the long, uninterrupted rule of the second Abe administration.

Like Ishiba, Ryosei Akazawa, vice finance minister, was elected from Tottori Prefecture.

Akazawa said before the presidential election, “In Nagatacho, people have always said, ‘Anybody but Ishiba.’”

“But the overwhelming number of local votes have broken that yoke,” Akazawa said.

For the time being, the power base of the new Ishiba administration will likely to be public support.

The people’s confidence in the new leader will be tested in the next Lower House election, which could possibly be held by the end of November.