Photo/Illutration Shigeru Ishiba, a former secretary-general of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, speaks with reporters in late January. (Takeshi Iwashita)

The conditions appear ideal for Shigeru Ishiba to make another run for president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and thus the prime minister’s post.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s Cabinet continues to suffer from low approval ratings, LDP factions are embroiled in a fund-raising scandal, and Ishiba’s criticisms against both Kishida and the faction system have resonated with the public.

However, it is this same outspokenness that has worked against Ishiba in his past four attempts to head the party.

Although opinion polls consistently show Ishiba as the leading candidate among the general public for the next prime minister, that popularity has not spread within the LDP.

His often critical remarks about LDP prime ministers have created an image of Ishiba as a backstabber.

Even a high-ranking member of Ishiba’s former faction said, “While he may be saying the right thing, I have repeatedly tried to tell him to stop acting like an opposition party lawmaker.”

Ishiba, a former LDP secretary-general who has held various Cabinet posts, including defense minister, now appears to be setting the groundwork for his fifth run for LDP president.

Following indictments in the fund-raising party scandal, most of the LDP factions decided to disband.

The group Ishiba heads also met on Feb. 7 to decide to formally revoke its designation as a political organization.

Speaking to three other lawmakers, Ishiba said, “While we will withdraw our submittal as a political organization, we will continue with group activities, such as policy study sessions.”

The Ishiba faction was originally established in 2015 when then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had a firm grasp on power. The members formed behind Ishiba because they felt he would become prime minister after Abe.

In 2012, Ishiba actually gained more votes than Abe in the first round of the LDP presidential election, but Abe won in the runoff.

Ishiba again faced off against Abe in 2018. While Ishiba captured about 45 percent of the ballots cast by party members in prefectural branches, he lost by a landslide among LDP lawmakers.

Pushed away from the LDP mainstream, the Ishiba faction downgraded to a group in 2021.

Ishiba group members have been trying to open up their forum to nonmembers in an attempt to build up a base of support for the next LDP presidential election.

In addition, Ishiba has been meeting with other LDP members popular with the public, such as Seiko Noda, a former internal affairs minister, and Taro Kono, the digital transformation minister.

Among those who feel the current political environment is suited for Ishiba is Yoshihide Suga, a former prime minister who also defeated Ishiba in an LDP election.

“Now is the perfect chance for Ishiba,” Suga said.

But Ishiba’s direct call in December 2023 to have Kishida step down in exchange for passage of the new fiscal year budget has rubbed many LDP lawmakers the wrong way.

Ishiba also in the past said Taro Aso should resign as prime minister.

While Ishiba may be itching for another chance to become prime minister, it remains to be seen if LDP lawmakers will let him finally achieve that goal.

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