Photo/Illutration Shigeru Ishiba at the Liberal Democratic Party's headquarters on Dec. 14, 2023 (Taku Hosokawa)

Widening criticism against factions in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party has apparently revived Shigeru Ishiba’s aspirations for the prime minister’s post.

Ishiba, a former LDP secretary-general, implied on a TV program on Dec. 11 that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida should resign in exchange for securing Diet passage of the fiscal 2024 budget proposal in March.

Many LDP lawmakers are privately discussing the demise of the Kishida Cabinet, whose approval rating has fallen to record-low levels in opinion polls by media organizations.

Still, Ishiba is the only one to speak about such a scenario before TV cameras. His remarks on Dec. 11 created a few ripples in and outside the LDP.

When Ishiba met with party allies over lunch on Dec. 13, they advised him to exercise more prudence out of fear that his straight talk about the Kishida administration may invite a backlash from within the party.

Ishiba, 66, a veteran Lower House member in his 12th term, is one of the favorites among voters to become the next prime minister.

In an Asahi Shimbun survey conducted in November, 15 percent of respondents chose Ishiba as the “most suitable” as prime minister from among seven LDP lawmakers, including Kishida.

Ishiba was a close second after former environment minister Shinjiro Koizumi, who got 16 percent of votes. Taro Kono, minister for digital transformation, came in third with 13 percent.

In party leadership elections, however, Ishiba has struggled to secure broad support, particularly from LDP Diet members.

He has made four unsuccessful attempts to become president of the ruling party, and thus prime minister.

His last run was in 2020 after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe resigned for health reasons.

Yoshihide Suga, who won the election, became prime minister. Kishida was the runner-up, and Ishiba finished third and last.

After that disastrous showing, Ishiba stepped down as head of his faction. The following year, the faction was disbanded.

At that time, political pundits said the demise of the faction would seriously hurt Ishiba’s future runs for the LDP presidency.

But now, being factionless is a boon.

One LDP heavyweight voiced expectations for Ishiba because the party’s major factions are all embroiled in the political funds scandal.

The politician, who wields enormous influence over party members unaffiliated with factions, said the factional crisis offers the best opportunity for Ishiba to aim for the LDP’s top post.

A lawmaker close to the outspoken Ishiba acknowledged that his “pull-no-punches” style can be a double-edged sword.

“If he criticizes the prime minister, he comes under increased pressure within the party, but he has won his popularity precisely because he says the right thing in the right place,” the lawmaker said. “It is difficult to strike the right balance between the two.”

The turmoil surrounding the LDP factions also seems to be encouraging Seiko Noda, a former internal affairs minister who does not belong to a faction.

She met with associates who supported her in the 2021 LDP leadership election at a Tokyo restaurant on the night of Dec. 12.

A lawmaker who attended described the occasion as a rally to kick off Noda’s election campaign.

Noda has failed three times to gain support from the minimum 20 party lawmakers needed to enter LDP leadership elections.

Noda did manage to run in the 2021 race, but she ended up dead last among the four candidates, including winner Kishida.

With the LDP factions facing a stiff political headwind, “lawmakers unaffiliated with factions like us have been finally granted ‘human rights,’” an elated Noda said, indicating the cold shoulder independent lawmakers have been given in the party.

Another former Cabinet minister who is considered a possible successor to Kishida said, “What is important now is to quietly bring down the curtain on the Kishida administration to prevent the party from being crushed (under the scandal).”

(This article was written by Seiko Tago and Haruna Shiromi.)

Related News