Photo/Illutration Prime Minister Fumio Kishida delivers a campaign speech to help the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s candidate in the Shimane No. 1 district in Matsue on April 27. (Jun Ueda)

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had told an Upper House Budget Committee meeting on April 24 that voters in three by-elections would evaluate “my attitude toward politics.”

They gave Kishida and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party such low marks that changes appear inevitable in the political landscape and for the prime minister’s strategy to stay in power.

The key test of the three Lower House by-elections held on April 28 came in Shimane Prefecture, where the LDP went head-to-head against the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan for the Shimane No. 1 district, long an LDP stronghold.

Kishida on April 27 made a last-second visit to Shimane Prefecture to drum up support for the LDP candidate.

However, the CDP’s candidate came away with the victory.

In the two other by-elections--the Tokyo No. 15 district and the Nagasaki No. 3 district--the LDP lost by default because it did not field candidates.

The Lower House seats up for grabs had been held by LDP lawmakers. The CDP won all three on April 28, and the LDP’s leadership may be held accountable for the losses.

For Kishida, the biggest potential threat to his reign will indeed come from within.

The political fund scandal that embroiled factions of the LDP came into play in the elections. The Nagasaki by-election was called after the LDP incumbent resigned over his involvement in the scandal.

Kishida faced criticism from the public over the party’s failure to fully explain why the scandal occurred and who was ultimately responsible for the scheme. He was also criticized from within the LDP over the disciplinary measures he took against certain figures in the party.

The three election losses could further destabilize the LDP and heighten internal attacks against the prime minister.

Seeking to put the scandal behind it, the LDP came up with proposals to revise the Political Fund Control Law to prevent a recurrence of the unreported funds.

The ruling and opposition parties are expected to hold discussions of the legal revisions in the upcoming Diet session.

Suggested revisions from other parties are much stricter in terms of fundamental changes than the LDP’s proposals. The by-election results may prompt the opposition parties to take a more confrontational stance on the issue.

Kishida’s ability to be the “face” of the LDP for future elections is also in question.

He will be seeking another term as LDP president when a party election is held in September.

Some have speculated that Kishida plans to dissolve the Lower House and hold a general election at the end of the current Diet session before the LDP election.

A Kishida-led LDP victory in a general election could provide him momentum for the party’s presidential poll.

However, sluggish support for his Cabinet and the losses in the by-elections have made LDP members more cautious about such a plan.

A source close to Kishida said, “The three defeats have made it difficult to dissolve the (Lower House).”

Kishida will likely be seeking re-election as LDP president with a weaker base. He dissolved his LDP faction earlier this year in the funding scandal.

Growing uneasiness among LDP lawmakers about Kishida’s leadership ability may ultimately force him to abandon his candidacy for the presidency.

Two Diet elections will be held in 2025, when the terms of both Lower House and Upper House members will expire.

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