Photo/Illutration Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump takes the stage to address supporters at his rally at the Palm Beach County Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida, on Nov. 6. (REUTERS)

I imagine that many of the people who watched live coverage of the U.S. presidential election results last week, expecting a very tight race, were quite surprised by the outcome.

Right up to Election Day, U.S. media polls indicated that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were effectively neck and neck in terms of their respective support rates.

But as it turned out, Trump won by a landslide and Harris conceded early.

This raises the simple question: What are we to make of those polls that kept predicting an extremely tight contest?

For Trump, this was a case of the “third time’s the charm.”

In 2016, Hillary Clinton, whose victory was considered a foregone conclusion, lost to Trump. And although Trump was defeated in 2020, he garnered a surprising number of votes.

Late last month, The New York Times did a detailed analysis of the reasons why polls have failed in past presidential elections.

It showed how the polling companies have tried to find ways to “reach Trump supporters” ever since Trump entered the presidential race eight years ago.

Trump supporters are said to be difficult to communicate with. Even when the overall poll response rate rose during the COVID-19 pandemic because more people were staying home, Trump supporters were out.

And they usually had only a low interest in politics and many were not even registered as Republicans.

Japan’s media organizations, including The Asahi Shimbun, also conduct polls at election times, and the survey methods have evolved from interviews conducted face to face to those over landline phones, mobile phones and eventually online.

The results are reported to satisfy the public’s interest in campaign developments and provide information that may help voters make their decisions.

The “inaccuracies” that emerged in the most recent presidential election have yet to be examined.

I should imagine that work will begin in search of new survey and analysis methods that will ensure greater accuracy. Polling is a profound undertaking.

—The Asahi Shimbun, Nov. 14

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Vox Populi, Vox Dei is a popular daily column that takes up a wide range of topics, including culture, arts and social trends and developments. Written by veteran Asahi Shimbun writers, the column provides useful perspectives on and insights into contemporary Japan and its culture.

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