Photo/Illutration A sign reading “No entry permitted” blocks off an abolished section of the JR Sassho Line in Hokkaido on July 19. (Toshiki Horigome)

An expert panel advising the transport ministry proposed new guidelines on July 25 for when rail lines that have been in the red for years should come up for review.

The panel recommended that train services run by Japan Railway companies should be evaluated once they hit a certain low level of ridership, known as a transportation density metric.

But the panel took a conservative approach, setting the benchmark far lower than decades ago, when it was used in determining whether to cut unprosperous rail services.

The panel said a train line should be reviewed if its average daily number of passengers per 1 kilometer falls under 1,000 or if it meets other conditions.

A review would not necessarily lead to anything drastic, such as scrapping a rail line outright, although it could indeed put it on the chopping block.

The review is designed to encourage train companies to go over their options with local authorities, like how to better maintain their lines or whether they would be better off switching to a bus service, and resolve impasses when the two sides disagree.

This is the first time since the Japanese National Railways (JNR) was privatized and became JR companies in 1987 that a government-tapped expert panel has proposed criteria for reviewing local train services.

The transportation density figures for 100 sections of 61 lines run by five companies within the JR Group, not including Central Japan Railway Co., falls under the 1,000 mark.

But the panel said sections where limited express trains or freight trains run should not come up for review, even if they have a transportation density of below 1,000.

The panel also said that multiple top-tier local authorities must agree on any changes proposed by train companies before proceeding with them.

Many trains, particularly ones run in rural areas, operated by rail companies within the JR Group have long struggled to return to the black because of the declining population and the widespread use of cars.

The number of passengers in cities has also dropped amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Some train companies operating these unprofitable train lines want to switch to bus services.

But it has been difficult for train companies and local authorities to have discussions on the issue as local authorities are often adamant that local train lines in their area should be maintained.

In the 1980s, when the government decided which train lines should be abolished according to the JNR Reconstruction Law, it used transportation density as a tool to help it decide on which lines to cut.

Back then, a line would be scrapped in favor of a bus service when its transportation density dropped under 4,000.

In recent years, JR companies including West Japan Railway Co. would publish the names of unprofitable local train lines when their density level fell under 2,000.

The panel’s proposal to use 1,000 as a threshold instead suggests it is looking out for local authorities which want local train lines to survive.

It also proposed that if the number of passengers between two neighboring stations reaches at least 500 in one direction over one hour, the line would not come under review.

This would maintain train lines used by many commuters and students going to school that might not be very busy at other times of the day.

The panel also proposed maintaining sections of lines where limited express trains connect prefectural capitals, as well as ones used by freight trains in the event of natural disasters.

(This article was written by Shinya Matsumoto and Shinya Takagi.)

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