Municipalities near the Tokai No. 2 nuclear power plant are struggling to develop emergency evacuation plans, which is hampering the prospects for restarting the facility.

One year has passed since the Mito District Court ordered the suspension of the Japan Atomic Power Co.'s plant in Tokai, Ibaraki Prefecture, citing a lack of evacuation planning.

The nine municipalities that did not have plans at the time have yet to come up with feasible ways to get their citizens to safety, and the COVID-19 pandemic is only making that process more difficult.

The Tokai No. 2 plant is the only commercial nuclear plant in the Tokyo metropolitan area.

The areas mandated to develop evacuation plans were expanded in 2012 to cover municipalities within 30 kilometers of the plant following the nuclear crisis that unfolded in March 2011, when an earthquake and tsunami caused a triple meltdown at Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s Fukushima No. 1 plant.

Around the Tokai No. 2 plant, 14 nearby municipalities would have to evacuate 940,000 people in an emergency. That is the most among all the nuclear power plants across Japan, according to their plans under the new standard.

The district court said nine of the 14 municipalities did not have plans, while those developed by the other five municipalities did not have more than one evacuation route planned to take into consideration that roads could be blocked or that other problems could transpire in the aftermath of earthquakes.

The Asahi Shimbun surveyed officials from those nine municipalities about the progress of their evacuation programs between February and March. According to their responses, it remains unclear when their plans will be completed.

Tokai village made “no significant advances” in developing its evacuation plans over the past year, while Naka city said its efforts toward creating an emergency preparedness plan “only resulted in more challenges emerging.”

LACK OF RESOURCES

Moving masses of people quickly to safety is a difficulty shared by many municipalities. Officials expect citizens would try to leave by using their own vehicles. But those who do not drive or own cars are supposed to be evacuated in buses and vans dispatched by the Ibaraki prefectural government.

While municipalities are responsible for developing their own evacuation plans, the prefecture makes some of the arrangements. For example, it liaises with other municipalities both in and outside Ibaraki Prefecture that will accept evacuees, which helps municipalities near the plant solve problems they cannot address on their own.

Residents living inside the 5-km radius of a nuclear plant need to leave as soon as a risk arises that radioactive substances could be released.

According to the prefectural government’s estimate, 400 to 500 buses would be needed to shuttle residents living within 5 km of the plant. The prefecture is seeking the help of the prefectural bus association to procure vehicles and drivers, but they have not reached an agreement.

“It would be impossible to send buses in a situation where drivers could be exposed to radiation,” said an association representative.

And when it comes to those staying in medical facilities and care centers, evacuating the area on their own is unrealistic.

Sumiko Fuseya, 86, director of Hitachi Tokaien, a care facility for elderly people requiring special treatment located just 4 km from the plant, said that would be “absolutely impossible” for her residents.

Almost all its 160 residents cannot get out of bed by themselves, and many suffer from dementia. Fuseya insisted at least one vehicle for every two residents would be necessary to take bedridden people out of care facilities.

“We cannot distribute that many vehicles on our own,” said Fuseya. “It is terrible to force us to deal with an impossible situation.”

The prefectural government demands that facility operators devise evacuation plans for their residents but, as of February, 70 percent of hospitals and 40 percent of welfare institutions have not released theirs.

The effectiveness of the plans is also in question.

The Ibaraki Prefectural Central Hospital made its evacuation planning public in 2018, which predicts 242 ambulances and welfare vans would be needed for its 1,300 patients and staffers to reach safety.

But the medical center is equipped with no more than five ambulances and passenger cars, and whether it can obtain all the required vehicles in an emergency is unclear.

The novel coronavirus has also thrown a wrench into the works.

The prefecture had previously decided that 2 square meters per person would be enough space in shelters to accommodate as many people as possible. But it has started talks with municipalities to increase that to 3 square meters or larger to prevent crowding.

Making those larger spaces would increase the number of evacuation centers required. And that would mean the prefecture will probably have to find additional municipalities to house evacuees, bringing about a new source of problems for municipal officials.

“We cannot swing into action until the process of reviewing evacuation destinations is finished,” said a representative of Hitachinaka city.

A Mito city official even suggested that changing the amount of space allocated to individuals might force them back to the drawing board to draft new plans.

Of all the 10 nuclear plants that meet the central government’s new safety standards nationwide, the Tokai No. 2 station is the only establishment yet to have evacuation plans drawn up for those living in a 30-km radius from the plant.

Residents are deeply concerned about whether they can safely escape in the event of a serious accident, and the feasibility of evacuation planning is key to winning the consent of locals to resume operations.

A representative of the Cabinet Office, which supports local regions in preparing their evacuation plans, said municipalities “are expected to play a core part, although we provide support and assistance.”

A municipal official criticized that stance, pointing out the allocated amount of personal space per evacuee in shelters currently varies by nuclear plant.

“The state should present a clear policy and view, not leave everything to municipalities,” said the local official.

A representative of Ibaraki Prefecture called for more help from the central government.

“Since our population within 30 km of the plant is the largest (at any nuclear facility) across Japan, there are a mountain of challenges that are difficult to settle by local governments on their own,” the prefectural official said. “We want the state to keep offering assistance.”