By MITSUMASA INOUE/ Staff Writer
December 23, 2025 at 18:29 JST
The number of babies in Japan continues to decline. (Asahi Shimbun file photo)
The number of Japanese children born domestically this year will likely be around 667,542, which underscores the nation's accelerating decline in this demographic, according to an Asahi Shimbun projection on Dec. 23.
This would be the lowest number since statistics became available in 1899, and it is expected to mark a new record low for the 10th consecutive year.
The estimate was derived by using data including the vital statistics published by the health ministry covering the preliminary figures for January to October and the approximate numbers for January to July.
This data was plugged into the formula the ministry has previously used to calculate estimates for how many Japanese children will be born annually.
Compared to the estimate of 667,542 births in 2025, the number recorded in 2024 was 686,173.
Meanwhile, around 495,000 couples are projected to be married by the end of the year, largely unchanged from the 485,092 in 2024.
The new birth estimate is significantly lower than the 749,000 that the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research had projected for 2025 in its 2023 medium-variant forecast.
It even falls below the institute's more pessimistic low-variant projection of 681,000.
That low-variant projection had estimated the number would reach 665,000 in 2029.
If the declining birthrate continues, there is a risk it will lead to a decrease in working-age workers, accelerating labor shortages in many fields.
The projection comes even as the central government implements a 3.6 trillion yen ($23 billion) annual package to combat the falling birthrate.
This November, the government established a population strategy headquarters to begin considering measures to address the anticipated short-term population decline.
Regarding the number of births, the ministry publishes preliminary figures around February of the following year. These include foreign nationals and Japanese born overseas. It publishes approximate numbers for Japanese nationals around June.
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Births expected to fall below 800,000 in 2021; pandemic cited
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Japan’s births mark record low in 2024, plummet below 700,000
June 4, 2025
Number of newborns set to hit record low of 773,000 in 2022
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