With Japan facing a declining population, the number of foreign workers is growing in the country to meet the shrinking workforce.

However, there are worrying signs, such as a political party that has garnered support by calling for tougher regulations against foreigners.

In an interview with The Asahi Shimbun, Kiyoko Saito, a senior researcher at the JICA Ogata Sadako Research Institute for Peace and Development, said foreign workers are inseparably linked to Japan if it wants to maintain a stable society.

What is missing from debates about accepting foreign workers is the perspective that it is up to Japanese to decide what kind of society they want to achieve in the future, she argued.

Saito's area of expertise includes international labor migration and route choice mechanisms.

Excerpts of the interview follow:

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SHORTAGE OF 1 MILLION WORKERS IN 2040

Question: How much of a foreign workforce do you think Japan will need to compensate for the labor shortage?

Saito: According to a demand-supply outlook compiled by the Ogata research institute, we need 4.19 million foreign workers in 2030 and 6.88 million in 2040 to achieve the economic growth target set by the government at a medium growth rate.

Under the current receiving system, it showed that Japan will be short of 770,000 workers and 970,000 workers, respectively.

However, it is also very difficult to simply estimate how many foreign workers will be needed.

That is because there are many variables that lead to a wide range of forecasts, such as how much economic growth will be achieved and how fast automation and mechanization will proceed.

Estimates are also affected by the situations in dispatching countries and Japan's policy of accepting foreign workers, so it's not like there is only one answer.

In light of the past circumstances, we came up with these numbers by applying the most consistent condition.

ENDURING INCONVENIENCE

Q: Does the number of required workers vary depending on what kind of future we want?

A: Yes. For the time being, there is no way to stop the declining birthrate and aging population and increase the domestic population, so it will vary depending on how much we want to maintain our current living environments and how much of a decline in human services we can accept.

For example, it's about whether we are willing to tolerate the inconvenience of living far from a convenience store or having a hard time making reservations for various services. Other factors include how much we can accept medical and nursing care services provided by robots.

I feel that what is missing from discussions at the (recent) Upper House election and on other occasions about accepting foreign workers is the perspective that it is up to us to decide what kind of society we want to realize in the future.

Q: What else must we discuss?

A: We must also discuss how many and what kind of people we accept from here on out.

Until now, foreign workers have been nearly synonymous with technical interns who are young and come to Japan in their first career start and are expected to return to their home countries after a short period of time.

But now, we must discuss whether we continue with such a model or embrace them as those who support Japan's society for a long period of time while they settle down and raise families.

If they are staying only for a short term like a couple of years, public financial spending through the social security system will be small. However, they won't provide a stable workforce.

Meanwhile, if they are to become part of our society for generations, we also need to consider as a society how we accept their children and grandchildren.

Recently, I hear stories about how foreigners are given preferential treatment in welfare and how they are free-riding on the social security system, but I feel that these are merely impression-based opinions in which tourists and people with different residency statuses are mixed up.

We need to take into consideration their skill levels, their residency statuses and other factors to foster more precise discussions, and it's not about giving them all or nothing.

Q: What do you think is a good way to accept them?

A: I think that sustainable models for receiving foreign workers vary depending on the industry.

For instance, Australia has adopted a hybrid work style, combining short- and long-term employment where foreigners staying on a working holiday visa are hired by restaurants and other businesses in the eating-out industry.

I think it is better to offer various working conditions, show both the merits and demerits of each and apply the condition in a flexible manner so that workers with appropriate skills can work in an appropriate way.

At the same time, it is also important to show them clearly that each of them has rights and duties as long as they work in Japan.

Q: It is also crucial to consider what foreign workers want and choose in Japan.

A: When people who want to work in Japan make a wrong choice, they end up being unhappy.

When they come to Japan with expectations different from reality, they tend to find themselves in trouble.

For example, there was a case in which a person who counted on receiving overtime pay wasn't allowed to work overtime at first and quit the job for being unable to pay off a debt.

Even though they are in trouble, they don't know whom to consult with.

Another issue is that such information is not widely available in dispatching countries.

Many people still don't understand the difference between the technical intern program and the specified skilled worker program (which permits long-term employment and residency in Japan).

EXCESSIVE EXPECTATIONS

Q: Do you think that people willing to work in Japan are influenced by the accounts passed on from those who actually worked in the country?

A: It seems that information surrounding people actually working in Japan is shared in their home countries through social media and brings a positive impact to those willing to go to Japan.

Meanwhile, some negative views from those who came back from Japan have also surfaced.

In dispatching countries, Japan is seen as some kind of a country of "dream."

Many young people are fascinated by Japan because they have an impression that it has a wonderful culture with a lot to offer, such as anime and food, that it is safe to live there and that people are kind.

But in reality, after actually working there, they felt lonelier and more difficult than they expected, saying that it was only a "dream."

While Japan has a short history as a receiving country, Malaysia and Hong Kong have earned a stable reputation (from foreign workers) who also have no excessive expectations.

I think it is important for both sides to share accurate information and improve literacy.