The central government has designated 723 municipalities in 30 prefectures for ramping up disaster mitigation measures based on revised damage estimates from a Nankai Trough megaquake, which has an 80 percent chance of occurring within 30 years.

Under the new goal, the municipalities, ranging from Ibaraki to Okinawa, where tremors of an intensity of lower 6 or stronger and tsunami of 3 meters or higher are expected, will be designated “disaster preparedness promotion areas.”

The central government will ask the municipal officials to create specific disaster prevention plans, such as making the infrastructure more earthquake-resistant and stockpiling more supplies, based on the characteristics of the respective areas.

While there will be no government financial support, municipalities and businesses in the designated areas will receive input from the central government when creating their disaster prevention plans.

In addition, managers of hospitals, department stores and other facilities with high foot traffic in these target areas will be required to formulate evacuation plans.

The designation was made at a meeting of the Cabinet’s Central Disaster Management Council held on July 1, following a recent review of the scale of damage that could be expected from a massive Nankai Trough quake. 

The central government set a new goal of reducing the number of deaths by 80 percent and the number of buildings completely destroyed or burned down by 50 percent over the next 10 years.

PLAN UPDATED FROM A DECADE AGO

Regarding an expected Nankai Trough megaquake, the central government created its basic plan for promoting disaster prevention measures in 2014.

The plan was based on the damage estimates of “332,000 people killed and 2,504,000 buildings totally destroyed or burned down” at the time, and accordingly, the government set a goal of “reducing deaths by 80 percent and total destruction by 50 percent” in the 10 years from 2014.

However, in March this year, new damage estimates were released based on the latest topographical and other data.

According to this, in the worst-case scenario, the death toll is estimated at 298,000 and 2.35 million buildings are expected to be completely destroyed.

In response to this review, the central government has now revised its basic plan.

The government's original goal of reducing the number of deaths and totally destroyed buildings in the 10 years from 2014 was not achieved.

However, according to a Cabinet Office official, these numerical targets are maintained because the government decided that it “should continue to set a high goal.”

205 EMERGENCY MEASURES LISTED

To achieve this new goal, measures to “protect lives” to reduce direct deaths from tsunami and earthquakes, and measures to “connect lives” to prevent disaster-related deaths will be pursued in a two-pronged manner.

The government has listed 205 measures to be taken by ministries and agencies, municipal governments and private businesses, including developing evacuation routes from tsunami, conducting disaster prevention drills and establishing comfortable evacuation centers.

Municipal governments that are designated as disaster preparedness promotion areas will be required to create a disaster prevention plan, incorporating these measures according to their individual circumstances.

The central government will check the progress of each municipality’s efforts.

NAGASAKI NEWLY DESIGNATED

Sixteen municipalities have been newly designated as disaster preparedness promotion areas, including the city of Nagasaki.

Currently, in the urban area of the city along the coast of Nagasaki Bay, where government offices, train stations and commercial facilities are concentrated, there are many signs indicating the height of the land, such as “2 meters above sea level.”

This is one of the efforts to promote tsunami awareness and preparedness.

Until now, no municipality in Nagasaki Prefecture has been designated as a disaster preparedness promotion area. However, eight cities and towns, including the prefectural capital Nagasaki, have now been designated.

According to the revised damage estimates released in March of this year, the inundation area in Nagasaki Prefecture has expanded to 1,970 hectares, which was an increase from the 2012 damage estimates, 1,540 hectares.

In the worst-case scenario, the latest estimates expect about 500 deaths by tsunami in the prefecture. The number was about 80 in the 2012 estimates.

On the other hand, it is estimated that a tsunami of 1 meter high will take approximately two hours to reach the area in the prefecture, at the earliest.

According to the prefectural government’s disaster prevention planning division, the central government’s estimates expect that the number of deaths in the prefecture can be reduced to zero if certain conditions are met.

These conditions include spreading a high level of evacuation awareness among residents and sufficient calls for evacuation. 

The prefectural government has taken tsunami countermeasures in preparation for a Nankai Trough megaquake and other earthquakes.

An official said the prefectural government recognizes the importance of using the new designation as an opportunity to create evacuation plans and further raise residents’ awareness of disaster prevention measures and evacuation procedures.

Under the new goal, hospitals, hotels, department stores and other facilities used by an unspecified number of people in the designated areas where tsunami inundation would be 30 centimeters or greater will be required to have evacuation plans in place.

A staff member in charge of such a plan at a large commercial facility near Nagasaki Bay said, “We have always prepared disaster prevention plans and conducted evacuation drills in preparation for major earthquakes and other disasters.”

Citing the central government’s tsunami arrival time estimate for the prefecture, the staffer said, “There is plenty of time before the tsunami hits. We will take firm action.”

(This article was compiled from reports written by Shoko Rikimaru and Hiroyuki Kamisawa.)