KUROSHIO, Kochi Prefecture—A cherry blossom viewing party held here on March 30 was not a typical “hanami” event, given its theme of “avoiding death.”

Residents repeatedly tossed firewood into a cooking furnace to make pork and vegetable miso soup. They also mixed stockpiled bonito from cans with cooked rice and then distributed the onigiri rice balls.

It was part of Kuroshio town’s effort to prepare for what could be the most devastating natural disaster ever to hit Japan.

A megaquake is expected to eventually strike along the Nankai Trough, triggering a tsunami that will swamp Japan’s Pacific coast from the Kyushu to Tokai regions.

Kuroshio town would be hit by a 34-meter-high wave, the highest across Japan, according to the central government’s disaster forecast.

Kochi Prefecture is located on the southern coast of the main island Shikoku, a particularly vulnerable area to a tsunami emanating from the Nankai Trough.

The municipality has dedicated itself to disaster management and mitigation through a range of initiatives over 13 years since the tsunami height was first predicted.

The hanami party was held in the Shiba district, home to 110 households near the Kuroshio town office. About 80 residents attended.

The session was designed to improve residents’ skills in preparing meals outdoors for evacuees during a disaster and replenishing supplies of food stockpiled for emergencies.

A voluntary disaster management group first proposed using a hanami party for preparations about 10 years ago. Only a few individuals showed up at first, but participant numbers have gradually risen year by year.

“Far more community residents now share the notion that we have no choice but to help each other in the aftermath of a disaster,” said Aya Sakamoto, 66, head of the Shiba district’s residents association.

SENSE OF RESIGNATION

This was not the case when the government first made the tsunami prediction in 2012.

“A sense of resignation spread among citizens at the time, as they felt there was nothing they could do,” recalled Jun Murakoshi, manager of Kuroshio’s information and disaster preparedness division.

The following year, Kochi Prefecture calculated the potential impact of the Nankai Trough megaquake based on central government’s damage estimate.

An estimated 42,000 people would die in the prefecture, including 2,300 in Kuroshio, or more than 20 percent of the town’s population.

Kuroshio then started an all-out campaign to achieve “zero casualties.”

Specifically, the municipal government put in place a “disaster management system by area” in which all 190 town staff members, excluding the mayor and other senior officials, are assigned to 14 areas.

Civil servants are supposed to hold workshops with residents in each area to devise disaster mitigation measures together.

The town’s tangible countermeasures include developing evacuation centers and 260 roads leading to them, allowing residents to reach shelter before the 30-centimeter first waves reach shore.

Running to evacuation facilities in time proved impossible in some locations. So, six dedicated tsunami evacuation towers were incorporated, ensuring no district would be considered a “difficult-to-flee” zone.

The town also prepared the “tsunami evacuation chart for respective households.”

It shows records kept for 3,800 households within the inundation forecast area, detailing such factors as quake-resistance capabilities, envisioned evacuation routes and the availability of personnel to assist elderly or disabled family members.

Citizens are expected to examine the chart to determine their own risks in a disaster.

The town office building, a municipal-run housing complex, a fire station, six fire brigade offices and four community meeting halls that will serve as emergency evacuation shelters have been relocated from the expected inundation zone to higher ground.

“It has become the norm through those efforts for residents to keep their spirits high and to run as soon as an earthquake strikes,” Murakoshi said. “We will continue to thoroughly consider what we can do to reduce casualties to zero.”

STRENGTH THROUGH SUBSIDIES

The Kochi prefectural government in fiscal 2012 started a subsidy program to relieve cities, towns and villages from the financial burden of building evacuation shelters, routes and towers. Funding has been provided by both the prefecture and the central government.

By fiscal 2023, 2,000 evacuation sites and 126 specialized towers had been constructed in the prefecture.

However, the prefecture’s questionnaire survey showed that only around 70 percent of residents would flee “immediately after” a major quake.

A quick flight to safety is crucial for lowering the death toll. Muroto city in Kochi Prefecture could be engulfed by a tsunami only 3 minutes after a Nankai Trough megaquake.

“We have already been actively committed to raising people’s awareness,” said Takashi Ito, head of the prefecture’s section in charge of implementing measures against a Nankai Trough earthquake. “We will be pitching new initiatives during daily life to make people more strongly aware of the significance of evacuation.”

TWO-WAY APPROACH

Katsuya Yamori, a professor of psychology in disaster preparedness at Kyoto University, noted the complexity of the issue.

“It is quite meaningful that residents believe that their actions can change the circumstances, rather than simply abandoning hope,” Yamori said. “But it should be noted that Kuroshio and other municipalities expected to be devastated by the megaquake are struggling with shrinking and aging populations.”

He said these local governments are more compelled to handle problems in front of them rather than deal with challenges from a Nankai Trough earthquake.

Yamori called for a “two-way” endeavor.

“They may need to take the lead in disaster management efforts nationwide while simultaneously re-energizing local communities,” the professor said. “They should, for example, use tsunami evacuation towers as tourism resources for attracting anti-disaster tour visitors.”

(This article was written by Atsushi Hara and Tatsuya Chikusa.)