Photo/Illutration NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte walks with Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya as they make a joint statement after their meeting on the sidelines of the NATO summit in the Hague, Netherlands, on June 24. (NICOLAS TUCAT/Pool via REUTERS)

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is facing criticism from some experts and from within his ruling party for missing the boat by not attending the NATO summit in the Hague, the Netherlands.

Ishiba, who had been invited as one of the four North Atlantic Treaty Organization partner nations in the Indo-Pacific Four (IP4), decided to pass at the last minute. 

Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya attended the summit on his behalf, discussing increased security cooperation with NATO.

Iwaya met with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte on June 24.

Rutte said that as the security environment becomes increasingly severe, cooperation between NATO and its partners in the Indo-Pacific region, including Japan, is becoming more important.

Iwaya said Japan welcomes NATO’s expanded involvement. The Japanese foreign minister also attended a related meeting of the IP4.

Rutte and the IP4 released a statement that said members of both groups are increasing their respective defense spending. In addition, these members aim to strengthen defense industrial cooperation to uphold the rule-based international order and support a prosperous world.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Japan has positioned the military alliance between Russia-North Korea and China-Russia as a common threat to Japan and NATO and has deepened cooperation.

Then Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated, “Ukraine may be the East Asia of tomorrow.”

Kishida attended NATO summits for three consecutive years until 2024, and focused on increasing the attention of geographically distant NATO countries on the Indo-Pacific region.

Following his predecessor’s course, Ishiba was also scheduled to attend the NATO summit, departing Japan on June 24.

However, it was announced the day before that he would not be attending.

According to several Japanese government officials, the fact that leaders of two of the four IP4 nations, Australia and South Korea, decided in succession not to participate was a factor for Ishiba to opt out as well.

“There is no longer any reason for him to go,” a senior Foreign Ministry official said.

The NATO summet was held in the immediate aftermath of the U.S. attack on Iran, and there was speculation within the Japanese government that U.S. President Donald Trump would not attend.

On the other hand, with NATO member nations setting a goal of raising defense spending to 5 percent of GDP at the summit, there were strong concerns within the Japanese government that the topic of defense spending would ricochet from NATO to the IP4 meeting, which Trump was also scheduled to attend.

In particular, with the Upper House election coming up next month, a Japanese government official said, “It would be a problem if the topic of defense spending is raised only with Japan, while other countries are absent.”

Some in the LDP have voiced questions over Ishiba’s sudden absence. Trump attended the NATO summit, his first since returning to the White House in January. 

An LDP lawmaker said, “If they thought Trump would not attend (the NATO summit), it was a mistake by the Foreign Ministry. They may have made a mistake in their judgment.”

Michito Tsuruoka, a professor at Keio University who is an expert on European politics and international security issues, said that the IP4 meeting has become established by the prime minister's annual attendance.

"As the leader of the IP4, Japan should have encouraged other countries to attend the meeting rather than being influenced by their moves," he said. "Japan could have been seen as lacking initiative. There is a concern that NATO will lose interest in the Indo-Pacific region if the meeting is held but the leaders do not show up.”

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