Support for constitutional amendment among newly elected Lower House members has dropped to 67 percent, the lowest level since the Liberal Democratic Party returned to power in 2012, a survey showed.

The ratio was down from 76 percent in the previous 2021 election and reflects the LDP’s significant losses in the Oct. 27 election.

The survey was conducted by The Asahi Shimbun and a team led by Masaki Taniguchi, a political science professor at the University of Tokyo.

The joint survey offered lawmakers five choices regarding the necessity of revising the Constitution.

Overall, 23 percent of the elected lawmakers were against or somewhat opposed to amending the nation’s supreme laws, compared with two-thirds of members who strongly or somewhat felt that changes were needed.

Nine percent of the lawmakers said they could not decide.

The proportion of those in favor of constitutional revision has steadily declined since 2012, when the rate was 89 percent of Lower House members. It was 84 percent in 2014, 82 percent in 2017, 76 percent in 2021, and now 67 percent.

By party, more than 80 percent of LDP and Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party) members selected “need to amend.”

Among party leaders, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who is the LDP president, did not respond to the survey, while Nippon Ishin leader Nobuyuki Baba chose “need to amend.”

Opinions were split among lawmakers of the Democratic Party for the People. Forty-three percent chose “need to amend,” while 46 percent selected “somewhat need to amend.”

DPP head Yuichiro Tamaki opted for “need to amend.”

Lawmakers of junior coalition partner Komeito took a different stance than their colleagues in the LDP on the Constitution. No Komeito members chose “need to amend,” and 63 percent selected “somewhat need to amend.”

The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, which gained seats in the latest election, was strongly against revision. Twenty-six percent of CDP lawmakers chose “no need to amend” and 31 percent opted for “somewhat against amendment.”

CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda selected “can’t decide.”

The survey also asked those in favor of revision to select all items in the Constitution that they believe should be amended.

Among LDP lawmakers supporting amendment, 96 percent selected “clearly recognizing the Self-Defense Forces” in the Constitution.

This change was also chosen by 95 percent of the Nippon Ishin members backing amendment.

In contrast, only 58 percent of DPP lawmakers and 13 percent of Komeito members who are in favor of amendment selected this option.

The survey was conducted on candidates before the Oct. 27 Lower House election.

Responses from the 465 elected members were analyzed. Of them, 449, or 96.6 percent, had responded.

LOW PRIORITY

The LDP’s losses in the election will further stall momentum for constitutional amendment.

Although Ishiba supports revising Article 9 of the Constitution, a plunge in his Cabinet’s approval rating has forced him to prioritize government stability over constitutional debate.

The LDP and Komeito lost 64 seats in the election, bringing the coalition’s total down to 215, short of the 233-seat majority.

The Ishiba administration has made collaboration with the DPP a top priority, particularly on economic issues. Revising the Constitution is now low on the political agenda.

And even if pro-revision lawmakers in the coalition are joined by like-minded lawmakers of Nippon Ishin and the DPP, the bloc would hold 281 seats, falling short of the two-thirds, or 310 seats, required to propose an constitutional amendment in the Diet.

“For the time being, debates on constitutional amendment are impossible. We don’t even have the capacity to hold the Commission on the Constitution in the Diet,” said a veteran LDP member who has actively promoted amendment discussions within the party. “The prime minister is to blame.”

Ishiba has long been passionate about constitutional amendment.

Paragraph 2 of war-renouncing Article 9 of the Constitution prohibits Japan from maintaining land, sea and air forces. The LDP’s stance is that wording should be added to the article to clearly state the legality of the SDF.

But Ishiba has gone further and called for the complete removal of Paragraph 2, emphasizing the need to formally recognize Japan’s military.

At the end of the administration of Ishiba’s predecessor, Fumio Kishida, two-thirds of Lower House members supported constitutional amendment.

Kishida had planned to accelerate amendment discussions to appeal to conservative LDP members in his bid for re-election as party president.

But Kishida bowed out of that election following the public uproar that erupted over the fund-raising scandal in the LDP.

The scandal also shifted Ishiba’s focus away from constitutional amendment, a topic he rarely mentioned in campaign speeches across the country for the Lower House election.

Late in the campaign, it was learned that the LDP had provided 20 million yen ($131,000) to party branches led by candidates who lost their LDP endorsements over their involvement in the scandal. Ishiba was too busy explaining the payments and responding to criticism from the opposition to promote constitutional revision.

(This article was written by Yuta Ogi and Taishi Sasayama.)