An atmosphere of courtesy, mutual admiration and respect dominated a meeting in September 2016 between two of the most well-known female politicians in Japan.

But on June 20, when the campaign for the Tokyo governor’s election officially starts, the two women are expected to drop all niceties.

The gubernatorial race is expected to be a showdown between Yuriko Koike, 71, the incumbent running for a third term, and Renho, 56, an Upper House member of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.

This is the first Tokyo gubernatorial election in history in which the two leading candidates are women.

Election day is July 7.

Koike and Renho both started their careers as TV newscasters, and they have also crossed paths in both successes and setbacks in their political careers.

The governor’s election is the first political contest that will pit the two directly against each other.

‘MY SENPAI’

The friendly conversation between the two in 2016 was held nearly two months after Koike became the first female governor of Tokyo.

Renho, who had just assumed the leadership of the main opposition Minshinto (Democratic Party), visited Koike at the metropolitan government office.

“It gives me strength to see how you are dealing with so many things,” Renho told Koike.

Koike smiled at Renho and replied, “Let’s both keep up the good work.”

After the meeting, Renho told reporters: “From my point of view, Koike is my ‘senpai’ (senior). She gave me a lot of awe-inspiring words.”

Since then, their fates have been somewhat intertwined and taken major turns.

Ten months after the meeting, Koike led a regional political party called Tomin First no Kai (Tokyoites First) in the metropolitan assembly election. It scored an overwhelming victory by securing 55 of the 127 seats.

Some assembly candidates backed by Renho’s Democratic Party switched to Koike’s party. Renho was forced to resign as party head less than a year after assuming the post.

Riding the momentum, Koike formed Kibo no To (Party of Hope) in September 2017, with the aim of advancing into national politics.

Some Democratic Party members joined Koike’s new party.

However, Koike came under fire for saying she would “exclude” some Democratic Party members who may not agree with Kibo no To’s policies.

Koike’s campaign stalled, and her new party was trounced in the Lower House election the following month.

The Democratic Party also split up, leading to the formation of the CDP.

DECISIVE BATTLE FORECAST

Since announcing her intention to run in the gubernatorial election on May 27, Renho has intensified her criticism of Koike.

“I cannot keep up with how quickly her words and actions change,” she said about the incumbent.

When she first ran for governor, Koike vowed to “destroy the black box” of the metropolitan government, a reference to the LDP’s Tokyo chapter, which supported a different candidate in the race.

Renho recently brought up that slogan.

“How has Koike changed the metropolitan government over the past eight years?” she said.

A senior CDP official acknowledged that Koike “is no easy match” for the sharp-tongued Renho.

However, momentum appears to be on Renho’s side.

Local candidates supported by Koike have lost in recent elections.

“There are signs of a shadow over Koike’s divine power,” the CDP official said. “This will be a decisive battle between Japan’s leading female politicians.”

NO TALK OF RENHO

Koike so far has made no conspicuous reference to Renho.

A close aide who has supported Koike since she was a Lower House member said, “Their track records as politicians are completely different.”

Another aide also dismissed the idea of a rivalry, saying, “Koike knows the existence of Renho, but I don’t think she has paid much attention to her.”

Both aides said they have never heard Koike talk about Renho.

However, Koike’s recent silence concerning Renho may have been part of a political ploy.

A senior official of Tomin First no Kai said Koike delayed the announcement of her candidacy for “as long as she could” to allow the buzz over Renho’s declaration to die down.

Koike confirmed she would seek re-election on June 12, two weeks after Renho’s announcement.

A metropolitan assembly member who belongs to Tomin First no Kai said, “Koike was probably looking for the best time to take the initiative on her own.”

The assembly member said the two sides in the race are now looking for clues on how the candidates will campaign.

“They will continue to keep an eye on each other and fight as they assess the other’s situation,” the member said.

CONTRASTING POLITICAL STYLES

Atsuo Ito, a political analyst who once worked at LDP headquarters and also served as secretary-general of the Democratic Party of Japan, noted the similarities and differences of the two politicians.

“Both have publicly declared their aspiration to become Japan’s first female prime minister,” he said. “They are both extremely well-known and highly effective at communication.”

But their political styles are in contrast.

Ito said Koike has “bounced around from party to party,” including the Japan New Party, the Liberal Party, the New Conservative Party and the LDP.

“She ran against the LDP in her first term as Tokyo governor, and she was at loggerheads with the LDP’s Tokyo chapter. But in her second term, she has mended ties with them. She is very politically astute,” Ito said.

On the other hand, Renho’s political career “seems to be linear” because she “has consistently walked in the field of the former Democratic Party of Japan,” he said. She “had a track record of creating opportunities to save money” when the party was in power.

Being back in the opposition camp, Renho “has attracted attention for her questioning skills and brought a sense of urgency to LDP administrations,” Ito said.

But if she becomes governor, she will be on the receiving end of sharp questions. “It will be a test on how she deals with the metropolitan assembly, which is dominated by the LDP and the Tomin First no Kai,” Ito said.

He noted that Koike has a strong ability to use catchy words to gain the sympathy of public opinion.

“Since she first took office, she has gained support by portraying herself as a ‘Joan of Arc’ by standing up to major enemies, such as the LDP. But this time, there is no major enemy. Renho is the challenger, and their positions are reversed,” he said.

(This article was written by Natsuno Otahara, Soichi Tsuchidate and Shiori Tabuchi.)