Photo/Illutration Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on June 3 (Takeshi Iwashita)

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has decided to postpone the dissolution of the Lower House during the current Diet session, which will end on June 23, and hold off calling a snap election, according to sources.

Kishida had envisioned a scenario in which he would dissolve the Diet during the current session and win a snap election, which would pave the way for him to be re-elected as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s president in September.

But the Cabinet’s approval rating has remained stagnant due to the LDP political funds scandal and the subsequent handling of the situation.

If the Lower House were dissolved and a snap election held, the LDP would  find itself in a disadvantageous position.

Therefore, Kishida has been forced to abandon the dissolution of the Diet rather than face a likely defeat. 

He will not extend the current Diet session and will instead focus on rebuilding his administration, according to the sources.

The bill to amend the Political Fund Control Low, which Kishida has vowed to pass during the current Diet session, will be approved by the Lower House by the end of the week with a majority of votes from both the LDP and its junior coalition partner, Komeito.

Kishida believes that the passage of the bill will bring a certain amount of closure to the slush fund scandal. And he hopes to use the passage to boost his administration's support rate. 

The prime minister will focus on steady implementation of the fixed-rate tax cuts that began this month, economic policies to end deflation, foreign policies such as the Group of Seven summit meeting, and discussion of constitutional reform, which is supported by his party's conservative base.

Kishida’s original strategy was to boost his Cabinet’s approval rating by touting the results of his state visit to the United States in April and the effect of the fixed-rate tax cuts, and then to hold a snap election and be re-elected as the LDP president.

However, public criticism increased in the wake of the December 2023 revelations of the slush fund scandal.

The LDP lost all three Lower House by-elections in April. 

The Cabinet’s approval rating has fallen to the 20 percent range, the lowest level since the LDP returned to power in 2012.

Within the LDP, there is a rapidly growing sentiment that the party cannot win an election under Kishida's leadership. 

Komeito’s leader Natsuo Yamaguchi also said, “We should not dissolve the Diet until we can confirm a trend toward restoring (the public’s) confidence in the government."

Kishida will make a final decision based on the situation in the last half of the Diet session.

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