By KENJIRO TAKAHASHI/ Staff Writer
December 25, 2023 at 16:22 JST
Japan’s birth rate has been declining since the second baby boom of the 1970s. (Asahi Shimbun file photo)
A record low of approximately 726,000 babies will be born in 2023, contributing to Japan’s declining birthrate, according to an estimate by The Asahi Shimbun.
The newspaper found that the number of newborns in 2023 is expected to be 726,416--a 5.8 percent decrease from the 770,759 births in the previous year.
The Asahi Shimbun made this calculation based on preliminary data from January to October, using the same method the health ministry uses for demographic projection.
Compared with the 5-percent decline from 2021 to 2022, the latest estimate indicates that the birthrate is declining faster.
In 2022, the number fell below the 800,000 mark for the first time since 1899, when record-keeping began.
The Asahi Shimbun’s prediction for 2023 also dropped below 739,000, an estimate released in April by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.
The data from the newspaper has already matched the institute’s forecast for 2034, which predicts a range of 720,000 to 730,000 for the year.
For 2024, the institute expects the number to briefly increase to 755,000 as the number of new marriages rebounds from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The number of newborns in Japan topped 2 million during the second post-war baby boom between 1971 and 1974, but it has been falling ever since.
The figure has been declining even faster since 2016, when the number fell below the 1 million mark.
The country’s fertility rate, or the average number of children a woman is expected to give birth to in her lifetime, hit a record low of 1.26 in 2022.
In its latest step to combat the demographic crisis, the Cabinet on Dec. 22 approved a 3.6 trillion yen ($25.2 billion) child-care package that included an increased child allowance and support for university tuition.
Many of the measures proposed in the package will be implemented within three years from fiscal 2024.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has pledged to take steps to reverse the country’s declining birthrate by 2030, considered the last chance to turn the downtrend around.
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