Photo/Illutration Elderly residents participate in a municipal exercise program in Ichikikushikino, Kagoshima Prefecture, in 2019. (Asahi Shimbun file photo)

More than 20 percent of the population will be aged 75 or older in 46 of the nation’s 47 prefectures in 2050, highlighting the nation's rapidly accelerating aging trend, according to a new estimate.

The finding, released on Dec. 22 by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research under the health ministry, shows the impact of second-generation baby boomers, born between 1971 and 1974, joining this demographic.

More than 40 percent of municipalities will see a halving of their working-age population aged 15 to 64, which could threaten the survival of these local governments.

The estimate is released every five years. The latest survey was based on the 2020 national census. The institute estimated the population of each prefecture and municipality until 2050 while taking into account mortality rates, people moving in or out, and other factors.

Thirteen municipalities in Fukushima Prefecture, including Okuma and Futaba, were counted as one region as some parts of them are still under evacuation orders due to the 2011 nuclear disaster following the Great East Japan Earthquake.

The ratio of people aged 75 or older was below 20 percent in all prefectures in 2020. But in 2050, the ratio will exceed 20 percent in 46 prefectures, except for Tokyo.

The previous survey five years ago estimated that 43 prefectures would have more than 20 percent of their population aged 75 and older in 2045.

In the latest survey, Akita Prefecture had the highest ratio at 32.2 percent in 2050, followed by Aomori Prefecture at 31.1 percent, Kochi Prefecture at 29.5 percent, Iwate Prefecture at 29.1 percent and Tokushima Prefecture at 28.8 percent.

On the other hand, Tokyo is the only prefecture with under 20 percent, at 17.5 percent. It was followed by Okinawa Prefecture at 20.4 percent and Aichi Prefecture at 21.4 percent.

Comparing the number of people aged 75 or older in 2020 with their estimated population in 2050, Okinawa Prefecture will increase by 1.79 times, Kanagawa Prefecture by 1.53 times and Shiga Prefecture by 1.5 times.

The increase in the number of elderly people will put a strain on medical costs.

The annual medical expenses for those aged 75 and older averaged 956,000 yen ($6,700) per person in fiscal 2022, nearly four times the 245,000 yen for those under 75.

Medical expenses tend to increase with age, potentially leading to a significant rise in social security costs.

UNDER 14 POPULATION FALLS IN ALL PREFECTURES

The population aged 14 or younger is projected to decrease in all prefectures in 2050, compared to 2020.

In 2020, 46 prefectures except for Akita maintained the ratio for the demographic in the range between 10 percent and 20 percent. In 2050, Akita’s ratio is expected to fall to 6.9 percent, the lowest among all prefectures.

On the other hand, Okinawa Prefecture will have the highest rate at 13.8 percent in 2050.

The ratio of those aged 65 or older is expected to exceed 40 percent in 25 prefectures.

The total population will continue to decrease.

After 2020, 46 prefectures will experience a decrease in population and after 2040, even Tokyo will see a drop.

The total population in 2050 is estimated to be 104.686 million, a decline of 21.46 million from 2020.

However, the population of Tokyo is expected to continue growing until 2035.

The ratio of the total population in Tokyo and three neighboring prefectures to the national population is projected to increase from 29.3 percent in 2020 to 33.7 percent in 2050.

In contrast, the estimates are devastating to rural areas as 11 prefectures will experience a decrease of more than 30 percent in their population compared to 2020. In about 20 percent of municipalities, their population will fall to less than half.

The estimates can be seen on the institute’s website: http://www.ipss.go.jp/

Related News