Photo/Illutration The Asahi Shimbun

Foreign nationals will account for nearly 11 percent of Japan’s dwindling population of 87 million in 2070, according to an estimate by the labor ministry.

The nation’s overall population will be around 70 percent of today’s total, mainly because of the declining birthrate, while the rate of foreign residents living in Japan will jump fivefold by 2070, the ministry’s National Institute of Population and Social Security Research said on April 26.

The institute’s estimate was based on the 2020 national census and took into account three factors: births, deaths and cross-border migration.

Japan’s average fertility rate, or the number of children a woman is expected to give birth to in her lifetime, for 2065 was previously estimated to be 1.44.

According to the latest estimate, the rate will fall further to 1.36 in 2070.

However, Japan’s population decline is now expected to be less severe.

The institute’s previous estimate was a population of 83.23 million in 2065. The new estimate is 87 million in 2070, the same level as in 1953, when full-scale television broadcasts started in Japan.

According to the latest estimate, the population will drop below 100 million in 2056, three years later than the previous estimate.

The slight decrease in the pace of depopulation is mainly because of the rise in foreign residents living in Japan.

Excluding short-term visitors, such as tourists, foreign nationals accounted for 2.2 percent of Japan’s population in 2020.

But in 2070, the ratio will be 10.8 percent, according to the estimate.

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of foreigners coming to Japan as technical interns and students was soaring. Their number is now expected to increase by 164,000 per year until 2040, up from previous estimate of about 69,000.

The average life expectancy in Japan has increased, too, contributing to the slowing down of population decline.

People 65 and older made up 28.6 percent of the population in 2020, and the ratio will jump to 38.7 percent in 2070, according to Miho Iwasawa at the institute.

The number of seniors will peak in 2043 and then gradually decline. But the pace of decrease in the population of children and young adults will be even sharper, Iwasawa said.

In 2038, fewer than 700,000 Japanese will be born. In 2070, the number will fall to 450,000, she said.

For Japan’s social security system, there were 1.93 people of working age (between 20 and 64 years old) to support one elderly person (65 or older) in 2020. But in 2070, the number will be 1.26, accroding to the institute.

People 65 or older may have to work into their retirement years to support themselves and even older generations.

The number of marriages in Japan sharply dropped during the pandemic, while movements of people across borders decreased.

However, the estimate excluded these two factors because their impact will be short-term.

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