THE ASAHI SHIMBUN
October 12, 2022 at 16:16 JST
With almost all conditions for arriving foreign tourists lifted on Oct. 11, those in the tourism industry are hoping for a long-awaited recovery.
However, while there are encouraging signs about incoming tourists over the next few months, there are also forecasts that the numbers will not dramatically increase until next year.
“The expected numbers for this year will not likely be met because airline fares have gone up,” said an official with the Japan National Tourism Organization (JTNO).
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has said he wants foreign tourists to take advantage of the weak yen to spend more while visiting Japan.
One aide to Kishida also said even if the same amount of money was spent this year, the weaker yen means the amount of Japanese currency received would be higher.
Lifting the visa requirement for foreign tourists has made it much easier for them to visit.
Airlines have experienced a sharp increase in reservations since Sept. 22, when the government announced it would relax conditions for arriving foreign passengers.
All Nippon Airways said reservations for foreign departures between December and January were up fivefold in comparison to mid-September. Reservations for flights from Japan have doubled.
Japan Airlines said reservations for foreign departures after November have tripled.
Still, doubts are being cast over whether the foreign tourist numbers from before the novel coronavirus pandemic can be reached.
China, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong accounted for about 70 percent of all foreign arrivals in 2019.
While South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong have also relaxed their own conditions for arriving passengers, China--which accounted for the largest number of foreign tourists pre-2020--still requires returning nationals to self-quarantine.
Thus, there will not likely be a large increase in visitors from China anytime soon.
The Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd. has estimated the effects of the COVID-19 health scare meant that for 2022, the number of foreign tourists would be reduced by 43.5 million.
The amount they would have spent in Japan would also be reduced by 5.7 trillion yen ($39 billion). The institute only expects about half the levels of foreign visitors seen in 2019, when about 32 million arrived in Japan.
One litmus test would be whether there are more passengers on flights to regional airports since tourists from Hong Kong and Taiwan prefer to visit areas outside of the main metropolitan regions, the JNTO official said.
Oct. 11 also marked the start of a travel subsidy program covering the entire nation.
Here again, though, there is one sign that domestic travel may not sharply rise.
JTB Tourism Research & Consulting Co. released in August the results of a survey that found those 60 and older are comparatively more hesitant to travel due to concerns about novel coronavirus infections.
(This article was written by Go Takahashi and Shinya Matsumoto.)
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