After failing to reach a consensus, experts offered four options for responding to a possible spike in infections after the upcoming Golden Week national holidays.

A government expert panel on the COVID-19 pandemic hashed out the four responses at its meeting on April 27, using the scenario where cases of the highly contagious BA.2 Omicron subvariant would surge after the holiday period.

The strictest response requires applying COVID-19 pre-emergency measures and other steps to restrict social and economic activities, in accordance with the law, while asking coronavirus patients to be isolated at designated accommodation facilities or treated at certain medical institutions.

The second-strictest response also involves imposing such anti-virus restrictions but recommends patients who do not need hospitalization be treated at home or local hospitals to reduce the burden on the health care system.

The third-strictest response does not require enforcing any restrictions on social and economic activities but calls on patients to self-isolate at designated accommodation facilities or receive treatment at certain medical institutions.

The least strict response involves no restrictions on social and economic activities while urging patients who do not require hospitalization to receive treatment at home or local hospitals.

Shigeru Omi, who heads the panel, indicated at a news conference after the meeting that the panel will hold further discussions on the four options, which were provided following a behind-the-scenes tug-of-war between the experts and the government.

“We can’t get the government’s understanding by simply presenting the options,” Omi said at an unofficial, hastily arranged online meeting of the panel members on the evening of April 21.

The remark sparked a heated debate that lasted until late at night, but the members failed to reach a consensus.

The panel comprises experts from a wide range of fields, such as clinical medicine, infectious diseases, economics and law.

Until the early stages of the current sixth wave of infections, starting in early January, the panel members had reached a consensus after discussions.

They are increasingly finding it difficult to do so, however, following the spread of the Omicron variant, which is less likely to cause severe symptoms.

Panel members with expertise in medicine argued that shortening operating hours for bars and restaurants is effective in curbing infections, while those specializing in economics hit back saying restricting social and economic activities is far more detrimental to society.

For the first time since the start of the pandemic, multiple panel members opposed extending pre-emergency measures during the sixth wave.

The panel began preparing to present the four options for measures against a possible resurgence in infections at the April 27 meeting with government officials. It also started running simulations of scenarios concerning the number of new COVID-19 cases and related deaths, depending on which measure is taken.

Government officials grew concerned, however, about the prospect that the experts would leave it up to the government to decide whether to impose anti-virus restrictions and other matters that could polarize public opinion.

Officials told Omi they do not think the panel can fulfill its role if it only presents the options and urged him to review the panel’s response, according to sources.

Torn between the government and the panel, Omi proposed treating COVID-19 as a common infectious disease without requiring enforcing any anti-virus restrictions in the mid- to long term.

He sought a consensus among the panel members on the proposal, which would meet the government’s expectation, before the April 27 meeting, but he failed.

At the meeting, some panel members said experts could not decide which option is the most desirable on their own, while others insisted politicians who represent the public in running the government should make the decision, according to participants.

But government officials who attended the meeting did not give any response, sources said. 

The government lifted all pre-emergency measures in March but is urging the public to continue taking precautions against the virus as it is a “period of transition to normalcy.”

“Touching on the easing of the restrictions will send the wrong message that we are hitting the gas pedal and the brake at the same time,” said a senior bureaucrat in charge of the government’s pandemic response.

Omi reportedly said at the end of the meeting that the panel members would start narrowing down the options, adding though, "We may not reach a consensus.”  

(This article was written by Anri Takahashi, Kai Ichino, Yuki Edamatsu and Kohei Morioka.)