Photo/Illutration A notice posted on the closed shutter of an "izakaya" pub offers an apology for its closure due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Tokyo's Taito Ward on March 1 during the surge in the sixth wave of infections. (Asahi Shimbun file photo)

The number of new COVID-19 cases is rising again in various parts of the nation, mainly in rural areas.

But infections are also trending up, albeit more mildly, in large cities and surrounding areas.

As the nation has emerged from the sixth wave of infections, which was driven by the Omicron variant of the new coronavirus, the more contagious BA.2 subvariant has become the dominant source of COVID-19 in the recent increase in cases around Japan.

A passenger who recently arrived at Narita Airport from the United States was confirmed as the nation’s first case of infection with the hybrid Omicron variant dubbed XE, a combination of the BA.2 and BA.1 sub-lineages.

With the Golden Week holidays, when many people travel, set to start soon, policymakers need to prepare for another swell in the pandemic.

Spreading amid growing uncertainty in the economy due to the war in Ukraine, BA.2, which is highly transmissible but less likely to cause severe health problems, could pose even more complicated policy challenges for the government.

The key question is whether the government should reinstate restrictions on social and economic activities to curb the spread of the virus, such as pre-emergency measures, if a new surge in infections starts threatening to strain the health care system.

During a meeting of the expert panel advising the government on policy responses to the pandemic held on April 8, members were reportedly divided on the issue.

Some argued that restrictions should be imposed until pressure on the health care system eases, while others contended that the government should trust people to change their behavior voluntarily and avoid reinstating restrictions. The panel failed to reach a consensus on the issue.

Shigeru Omi, the chairman of the panel, told a news conference that the group of experts may opt to present multiple policy options to the government without trying to hammer out a unified stance toward the issue among its members.

That would be a new approach by the panel, which has so far mostly offered unified opinions to the government.

There have been signs of disagreements on how to respond to the changing situation. During the sixth wave, active coronavirus clusters emerged mainly in facilities for elderly people, schools and day nurseries.

But the government’s responses remained focused on bars and restaurants in line with the pre-emergency measures. This prompted some prefectural governors and members of the expert group to voice skepticism about the effectiveness of the approach.

But there is no denying that the measures led to positive changes among businesses and people. Many companies have promoted teleworking, while people have refrained from dining out in large groups.

Special consideration should be given to rural areas that are much more vulnerable to large outbreaks of infections than urban areas because of lower health care capabilities.

Since there is no one correct answer to the questions involved, the expert panel should present all viable policy options based on broad knowledge and clearly explain their respective advantages and disadvantages.

It is up to policymakers to assess the options and decide which should be adopted. The government needs to offer detailed explanations about its decisions, take measures to deal with the disadvantages and take responsibility for the results.

It is vital to reconfirm the respective roles and responsibilities of expert advisers and policymakers that must have been sorted out through the confused early stages of the pandemic.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has been placing much importance on the requests from governors in making decisions concerning whether and when to impose or lift the pre-emergency measures.

While it is important for the government to listen to the voices from the front line, Kishida, as the leader of the nation, should not leave the final decisions to other people.

A situation where experts are divided over what should be done is the real test of political leadership.

--The Asahi Shimbun, April 15

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