If the opposition camp remains fragmented, it will be trounced by the powerful ruling coalition in the Upper House election this summer. 

The demoralized opposition could remove the healthy tensions vital for democracy.

If, however, the opposition parties hastily cobble together an agreement on electoral cooperation shortly before the poll, they will face confused and unconvinced voters and have little time to secure broad public support.

If they intend to perform the crucial role of keeping the government from taking wrong actions as opposition forces, they should stop wasting time right now.

The expected date for the start of the official campaign period for the Upper House election is now less than three months away.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party has already chosen or is about to choose its official candidates for all constituencies but the Yamagata Prefecture district.

The LDP and its junior coalition partner, Komeito, have reaffirmed their cooperation after a little bit of friction over the “mutual recommendation” of candidates between the two parties.

In contrast, the opposition bloc has been slow to prepare for the election. In the past two Upper House polls, the opposition parties fielded their unified candidates for all the 32 districts where only one is elected in joint efforts to take on the political dominance of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

The alliance was effective, at least to some extent. The opposition captured 11 of the 32 seats in 2016 and 10 in 2019.

This time, however, the opposition groups have been dragging their feet on seeking such cooperation for the election. They are still selecting their own candidates and have yet to start talks for a possible deal.

The momentum for opposition cooperation has been dealt a blow by the Democratic Party for the People’s (DPP) move to build closer ties with the ruling coalition.

In addition to voting for the government’s draft budget for the new fiscal year that started April 1, the DPP has begun working-level talks with the LDP and Komeito over the proposal to invoke a “trigger clause” to temporarily lower the gasoline tax as a policy response to soaring gas prices.

After distancing itself from the opposition alliance including the Japanese Communist Party (JCP) for the Lower House election last autumn, the DPP has now taken one further step and become a de facto partner of the ruling coalition without taking a post in the Cabinet.

Yuichiro Tamaki, the DPP leader, should clarify the party’s political position by saying whether it will help the ruling coalition’s efforts to divide the opposition camp or confront the administration as a bona fide opposition party.

The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) has yet to start talks over electoral cooperation with the JCP, which has already picked its candidates for 17 single-seat districts.

The two parties are at loggerheads over how to interpret their agreement on “limited cooperation without sharing Cabinet posts” prior to the Lower House poll. It does not make sense for the two parties to continue wrangling over this issue at this moment given that an Upper House election does not lead to a transfer of power. 

Kenta Izumi, the CDP leader who has proposed scrapping the agreement, should take the initiative for constructive talks to coordinate his party’s stance with that of the JCP.

One key challenge for the opposition camp in trying to offer a viable and convincing political alternative to the LDP-Komeito administration is whether it can work out a policy platform that really appeals to voters.

The CDP has admitted that its campaign platform for the Lower House election in autumn was not good enough, saying it contained planks that seemed to voters to be unrealistic in terms of financing and other factors.

The CDP should learn from its mistake and thrash out a slate of policy proposals designed to meet the demands of voters from the mid- to long-term perspective. It should not compete with the ruling coalition in trying to garner votes by doling our pork and other political favors.

Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party), which sharply boosted its strength in the lower chamber last autumn, has set a goal of winning at least 12 seats in the Upper House election, double its six seats that will be up for grabs.

The party’s principal short-term goal is to become the largest opposition bloc in the next Lower House election.

Ishin’s political future as a “third-pole” opposition party will depend on how it can expand its support base beyond the western Kansai region around Osaka, its home turf.

--The Asahi Shimbun, April 3