The daily number of new COVID-19 cases in Tokyo has declined, but government officials warn that the trend is bottoming out and that residents, particularly younger people, should not become complacent.

“Tokyo is still in the middle of an unpredictable situation, and the number of daily new infections might bounce back,” Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike said at a news conference on Feb. 19. “Please keep taking anti-virus measures.”

When the second state of emergency was issued for Tokyo and three surrounding prefectures on Jan. 7, the capital confirmed a record high number of new COVID-19 cases, which has been modified to 2,520.

The central and Tokyo metropolitan governments urged the public to avoid nonessential outings and asked restaurants and bars to shorten their operating hours.

When the second state of emergency was extended to March 7, Tokyo set a goal of decreasing the daily average of new infections for one week to 70 percent of the levels of the previous week.

Koike said the daily number of new cases would drop to 140 or fewer around early March if the 70 percent goal is reached and maintained.

The daily average number of new COVID-19 cases in Tokyo did decrease to around 70 percent of the previous weeks’ tallies.

But in the last few days, the daily averages have been close to 90 percent of the numbers for the previous week.

The daily average for the week to Feb. 18 was 355.1, or 76.3 percent of the previous week’s average.

But on Feb. 18, 445 new COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the capital, exceeding 434 marked one week earlier on Feb. 11. It was the first time in about a month for the week-on-week figure to increase.

The daily average for the week to Feb. 19 was 84.7 percent of the tally a week earlier, and the corresponding figure was 91.6 percent for the week to Feb. 20.

With 272 new infections confirmed in Tokyo on Feb. 21, the daily average for the week up to that day was 89.9 percent of the number for the previous week.

On Feb. 22, Tokyo reported 178 newly confirmed infections, breaking below 200 for the first time since 188 cases were reported on Nov. 24 last year.

However, the daily average for the week ending Feb. 22 was 329, or 86.9 percent of the previous week.

A Tokyo metropolitan government official said the decline in infections is bottoming out partly because of the rise in infected patients in their 20s and 30s.

“More young people might have slightly increased their outside activities,” the official said. “Some of them were infected after they dined out on holidays or gathered with friends.”

The official urged them to refrain from dining out and to avoid nonessential outings to further decrease the number of new cases.

MORE TESTING SOUGHT

At the same time, the rate of positive test results, an indicator of how widely the novel coronavirus is spreading among communities, was an average of 4.1 percent for the week until Feb. 19, matching the level in early November last year. It was a significant drop from the peak of 14.5 percent on Jan. 7.

However, Masataka Inokuchi, vice chair of the Tokyo Medical Association, pointed out at a meeting on Feb. 18 that the average daily number of tests for the week until Feb. 17 dropped to 6,859 from 7,871 for the previous week.

“The virus tests have not been conducted strategically,” he said. “More testing is an effective measure to prevent a resurgence of infection cases.”

The central government has set a March 7 deadline for the extended state of emergency for Tokyo and nine prefectures.

The medical service capacity of each area will be an important factor on the decision to either lift or further extend the state of emergency.

In January, Tokyo had more than 3,000 COVID-19 patients in hospitals, but the number was down to 2,035 patients on Feb. 21, with the hospital bed occupancy rate dropping to less than 50 percent.

That rate is lower than the figure that signals the most serious Stage 4 level set by the government’s subcommittee on the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the number of hospitalized patients remains high.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN KANTO, KANSAI

Japan confirmed 1,032 new COVID-19 cases and 50 deaths on Feb. 21.

According to the health ministry, the number of COVID-19 patients in critical condition decreased by 15 from previous day to 511 on Feb. 20.

The three prefectures that confirmed 100 or more new cases on Feb. 21 were all in the capital area: 272 in Tokyo, 163 in Chiba and 100 in Kanagawa.

On the other hand, the three prefectures in the Kansai region that are under the state of emergency had lower numbers: 60 in Osaka, 27 in Hyogo and nine in Kyoto.