A 50-percent nosedive in canned mackerel production in the past five years has turned what was once a go-to healthy budget food into a finicky market.

However, this is nothing new for Michihito Matsutomo, a section chief of the marketing department at Kinoya Ishinomaki Suisan Inc., based in Ishinomaki, Miyagi Prefecture.

"Canned mackerel production is one-30th the volume from 10 years ago," he said.

The fishery processing company’s canned products include high-quality "Kinka saba” (mackerel) from Ishinomaki Port, one of the main mackerel ports in the Tohoku region, boiled in water or simmered with miso.

But catches have dwindled in recent years and the size of the fish has shrunk, both leading to multiple instances of the company suspending sales after being unable to prepare the ingredients for canning.

"The purchase price of mackerel for canned products has doubled over the past three years," said Matsutomo.

Kinoya Ishinomaki Suisan is not the only company with mackerel problems.

POST-BOOM DEMAND

The Western-style "Ca va? Can" brand became a cherished symbol of reconstruction after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami.

The canned mackerel line caused a stir when it went on sale in 2013; the five varieties, including an olive oil base, were initially priced at 360 yen ($2.40) each—two to three times more expensive than standard canned mackerel.

Still, a total of 12 million units of vibrantly packaged fish were sold.

This all ended in May when all production ceased after being impacted by recent poor catches.

A plant in Kamaishi, Iwate Prefecture, was also forced to temporarily suspend operations due to the meager catches.

"We would have continued selling it if we had the ingredients," said a representative of Iwate Kensan Co., a semi-public company previously in charge of sales.

In addition to being reasonably priced, canned mackerel had established a reputation as a health food rich in docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) and other nutrients, leading to a boom 10 years prior.

Supply couldn't keep up with the demand at one point, and its production volume surpassed that of canned tuna, which had been produced in a much larger volume.

But according to the Japan Canners Association (JCA), the production of canned mackerel totaled 21,000 tons in 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 7 percent.

The figure was down nearly by half from five years earlier, and it was overtaken by canned tuna again.

"The boom subsided, but the material supply shortage continues because the demand for canned mackerel remains constant," a JCA representative said.

According to the Fisheries Agency, Japan's mackerel catch was about 271,000 tons in fiscal 2023 (from July 2023 to June 2024).

The number has almost halved over the past five years.

There is an assertion that changes in ocean currents, rising seawater temperatures and overexploitation of fisheries resources contributed to the decrease.

The great meandering of the Kuroshio Current, which had affected fishing environments and catches around the country, came to an end in spring this year for the first time in seven years and nine months.

However, an agency official said, "We don't know how it would affect the catches."

The average wholesale price for mackerel was 560 yen per kilogram at Tokyo's Central Wholesale Market in 2024, an increase of about 30 percent from five years earlier.

RETORT POUCHES

The production of not only canned mackerel but also canned fishery products overall hit the lowest level for the first time since 1952, or 72 years.

According to the JCA, the production of canned fisheries products, including bottled ones, totaled 73,742 tons in 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of about 6 percent.

The figure is an 84 percent decrease from 1980 when it peaked at 465,005 tons.

By species, the production of canned saury saw a year-on-year decrease of about 21 percent, followed by canned salmon at 16 percent and canned mackerel at 7 percent.

The catches of each species have been meager in recent years, making it difficult for canned food makers to procure the materials.

Canned sardine, whose production had been on the increase from 10 years earlier, declined by 17 percent year on year in 2024.

The JCA has additionally taken note of the widespread use of retort pouches as an underlying cause of the decline in production.

Retort pouches are easier to dispose of and offer advantages for manufacturers, including being easier to package.

"In addition to the material shortage, soaring labor and material costs have resulted in price increases for canned foods," a JCA representative said. "Consumers are less eager to reach for them, and it is difficult to drastically improve production volumes."