Photo/Illutration The Takaichi administration is planning changes in rice production policies. (Asahi Shimbun file photo)

Signaling a shift in agricultural policy, the farm ministry plans to forecast 7.11 million tons in rice production for staple food in 2026, a 5-percent reduction from the volume this year, sources said.

The government-determined forecast serves as a key reference for farmers when planning their crops. The official forecast for the 2026 harvest will be announced soon.

As prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba pushed a policy of increasing rice production to prevent shortages and bring down sky-high prices.

But the new administration under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is scrapping Ishiba’s plan over concerns that a potential oversupply could trigger sharp price declines and anger farmers.

Currently, rice prices remain high.

The volume of rice production from the 2025 harvest is expected to reach 7.477 million tons, about a 10-percent increase from 2024.

However, the ministry expects demand for staple food rice to range between 6.97 million tons and 7.11 million tons in 2026, roughly the same as 2025.

As a result, the ministry plans to set the production forecast close to the upper end of the 2026 demand estimate.

The 2026 production forecast is less than the volume of the 2025 harvest but still larger than the 2024 level.

In announcing his plans to enhance rice production, Ishiba shifted away from the previous government’s policy that focused on maintaining rice prices by curbing production.

Norikazu Suzuki, the newly appointed farm minister, plans to abandon Ishiba’s approach.

“The principle is production aligned with demand,” Suzuki said at his news conference on Oct. 22. “It is difficult to continue increasing output irresponsibly until the rice market, including overseas, expands steadily.”

Under the Ishiba administration, when rice shortages were pushing up prices, farm minister Shinjiro Koizumi intervened by releasing and suggesting an estimated retail price of government-stockpiled rice.

Suzuki said his ministry intends to refrain from distributing government reserve rice to curb prices, and that it plans to replenish the stockpiles back to appropriate levels.

“We should not be deeply involved in setting prices,” he added.

To replenish the reserves, the ministry plans to buy about 210,000 tons from the 2026 harvest through contracts with farmers made in advance, sources said.

In addition, if demand for staple food rice falls short, the ministry plans to purchase some of the surplus from the market.

Suzuki said the ministry is considering having private distributors hold part of the government stockpiles to reduce the risk of distribution delays after its release.

The ministry is also moving toward shortening the current five-year rice storage period, sources said.

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