By RINTARO SAKURAI/ Staff Writer
June 26, 2025 at 14:23 JST
Global warming played a part in the high temperatures in Tokyo on June 18, scientists say. (Asahi Shimbun file photo)
Japan’s extremely high temperatures in mid-June would not have been possible without global warming, according to scientists.
The average temperature at an altitude of about 1,500 meters around the country on June 16-18 was 17.2 degrees, the highest since 1950 for the same period, Weather Attribution Center Japan said June 26.
Simulations showed a 6.0-percent probability of the temperature exceeding this level under climatic conditions with global warming. But the probability drops to nearly zero percent without the effects of climate change, the center said.
According to data between 1991 and 2020, the temperature rises above 17.2 degrees at that altitude only once every 85 years.
The 6.0-percent probability means the event occurs once every 17 years, indicating that the frequency of occurrence has increased under current climatic conditions.
Weather Attribution Center Japan used event attribution, a method to analyze the impact of global warming on weather conditions, such as extreme heat and heavy rain, through simulations.
The temperature likely rose in mid-June due largely to an extremely strong high-pressure system in the Pacific Ocean.
The center said the heat event could not have occurred without global warming, regardless of “any combination of natural climate variability.”
According to the center, the number of locations where daily highs reached at least 35 degrees exceeded 200 between May and mid-June, the most since records began at the Japan Meteorological Agency.
The center was established in May by researchers at the University of Tokyo and Kyoto University to study how global warming affects extreme weather events and to publish analyses soon after they occur.
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