Photo/Illutration Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba speaks in the Upper House on June 9. (Takeshi Iwashita)

July 20 is set as the date for the Upper House election, the first national Diet poll held in the middle of a long weekend, with official campaigning starting July 3, sources said.

The government will soon confirm the election schedule at a Cabinet meeting.

The terms of half of the Upper House lawmakers will expire soon.

Under these circumstances, the Public Offices Election Law states that an Upper House election should be held between 24 and 30 days after a Diet session ends.

The Ishiba administration has decided not to extend the current Diet session beyond the scheduled closure of June 22. The opposition bloc has also backed off plans to submit a no-confidence motion against the Cabinet.

That means the weekend of July 19-20 would be the most logical choice for the Upper House election.

Monday, July 21, is Marine Day, a national holiday, creating a three-day weekend.

Although the election could be held on July 21, a senior administration official said that is not envisioned.

According to the internal affairs ministry, this will be the first time since 1952, when such record-keeping started, for a national Diet election to be held in the middle day of a holiday weekend.

The ruling coalition entered this year’s regular Diet session after losing its majority in the Lower House election last October.

Although Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba leads a minority government, the Diet passed the fiscal 2025 budget bill, revised the Income Tax Law and approved the Active Cyber Defense Law during the session.

Pension-related bills are also expected to be passed on June 13 following an amendment agreement between Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party and the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.

In terms of legislation, the Ishiba administration sees no reason to extend the Diet session.

One other event that could throw the political world into turmoil would be a no-confidence motion submitted by the CDP to the Lower House against the Cabinet.

Ishiba had informed those around him that he would prevent a vote on such a motion by dissolving the Lower House and calling a snap election.

However, CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda apparently moved away from the no-confidence motion threat after other opposition parties, such as Nippon Ishin (the Japan Innovation Party) and the Democratic Party for the People, voiced reluctance to join the move.

Some members of Ishiba’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party are, in fact, pushing for a Lower House dissolution. They say that holding simultaneous elections for both Diet chambers next month could be advantageous for the ruling coalition, now that the Cabinet’s approval rating is rising.

But Ishiba is cautious about calling a Lower House election since the last one was held so recently.

With U.S. tariffs a pressing issue for Japanese manufacturers, Ishiba is now making arrangements to hold a summit with U.S. President Donald Trump in conjunction with the June 15-17 Group of Seven summit in Canada.

(This article was written by Kohei Morioka and Shinichi Fujiwara.)

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