Photo/Illutration A crowd of commuters at a train station (Asahi Shimbun file photo)

The number of people in the labor force in Japan who are 15 and older reached an all-time high for the second year in a row, according to the internal affairs ministry's Labor Force Survey results released on Jan. 31. 

Official documentation began in 1953 and defines the labor force as the sum of people working and those searching for jobs.

The record set in 2023 jumped by 320,000 for a total of 69.57 million workers in 2024. Of this, the elderly, women and non-Japanese residents were three demographics that saw a significant increase. 

A private research firm has even predicted that the labor force will exceed 70 million individuals in 2030. The number has trended upward since 2012's total of 65.65 million people and has stayed above 69 million since 2019.

In June 2024, the labor force hit 70.03 million, exceeding 70 million for the first time ever. Meanwhile, the number of workers totaled 67.81 million in 2024, also a record high. 

Despite the low birthrate meaning the pool of those of working age between 15 and 64 shrank, last year saw more women and senior citizens joining the labor force.

In 2024, the labor force population 65 and older hit 9.46 million, which is 1.9 times the figure from 2000. Around one in four people, or 26.1 percent, in this demographic are willing to work.

Additionally, the number of women in the labor force was 31.57 million, up about 4 million from 2000. The issue of the "M-shaped curve" that reflects women in their 30s and 40s quitting their jobs due to marriage or child-rearing responsibilities has seen improvement.

Persol Research and Consulting Co. estimates that the labor force will hit about 71 million in 2030 and 72 million in 2035.

“The big factor behind the increase will be elderly people,” said Ryota Nakamata at the research institute.

“The percentage of people between the ages of 60 and 64 who want to continue working past 65 is about 70 percent, and the percentage of people between the ages of 65 and 69 who want to keep working past 70 is about the same, Nakamata said. If they continue to work as they desire, we can expect a further boost in the labor force.”

On the other hand, an estimate released by the Japan Institute for Labor Policy and Training in March 2024 shows that the labor force will be 65.56 million individuals in 2030 and 60.02 million in 2040. This is based on the workforce participation remaining consistent with the 2022 figures.

If the country’s economy grows and workforce participation increases, the labor force is forecast to be 69.4 million in 2030 and decrease to 67.91 million in 2040—a much different outlook compared to Persol Research and Consulting. 

Regardless, even if the number of elderly people and women working continues rising, it does not necessarily mean the labor inputnumber of hours workedwill also increase. Older individuals often choose shorter working hours. 

Persol Research and Consulting predicts that the number of hours each employee works over the course of a year will decrease from 1,850 hours in 2023 to 1,687 hours in 2035.

The company also estimates that there will be a shortage of 17.75 million hours per day, equivalent to 3.84 million workers.