As the winter holidays approach, concerns of surging egg prices are casting a shadow on year-end festivities. 

The decrease in available eggs is the result of a brutal cycle that began in summer when record-breaking heat led to chickens suffering from heatstroke and producing less. Fall has offered no reprieve as avian influenza continues spreading at an unprecedented rate.

Some worry this heralds a repeat of the “egg shock” of two years ago when egg prices jumped to about twice the usual cost.

ALREADY COSTLIER

In mid-November at the Akidai Seki-machi Honten supermarket in Tokyo's Nerima Ward, a pack of 10 large LL-size eggs cost 233 yen ($1.50), excluding tax. This was a price increase of more than 50 yen compared to average years.

A woman in her 40s who was grocery shopping looked worried.

“I cook 'tamagoyaki' (rolled omelet) and put them into my family's lunch boxes. If the price goes up more, I don’t know what to do,” she said.

Demand for eggs is expected to rise as staple ingredients in Christmas and New Year's dishes, as well as ingredients for "oden" (Japanese hot pot). In normal years, egg prices usually increase by about 50 yen toward the end of the year.

Hiromichi Akiba 56, the supermarket’s president, expressed his concern, saying, “If avian flu appears this year, prices could rise even further.” 

The price index for eggs that serves as a benchmark for eggs is based on the cost of medium-size eggs per kilogram. This is officially set by JA Zen-Noh, the National Federation of Agricultural Cooperative Associations.

In January the price ranged from 175 to 181 yen per kilogram, but it has risen significantly since August.

As of Nov. 15, the average price reached 270 to 285 yen per kilogram, nearly 60 percent higher than what they cost at the start of the year.

According to the agriculture ministry, the record heat over the summer weakened chickens and led to lower production rates as well as smaller eggs. The decreased supply inevitably led to prices rising. 

Ministry officials are now monitoring the potential impact that bird flu may have on driving prices up further.

MORE CHICKENS CULLED

“This year's pace of outbreaks is the same as the worst outbreak we've seen,” Taku Eto, agriculture minister, said during a Nov. 15 news conference.

He said that the avian influenza outbreak this season (autumn 2024 to spring 2025) is progressing at a pace similar to the 2022 season, which saw a major epidemic.

Since the first case of avian influenza was confirmed in Hokkaido on Oct. 17, eight cases across six prefectures have been confirmed, including Chiba, Shimane and Miyagi prefectures as of Nov.15.

Around 1.08 million birds have been culled, already exceeding the 860,000 mark of the prior season that began in fall 2023.

The 2022 outbreak was particularly severe with 84 cases across 26 prefectures leading to the culling of about 17.71 million birds, ultimately leading to a serious egg shortage.

This resulted in a dramatic rise in egg prices during the spring and summer of 2023. In turn, egg-based products such as cakes saw widespread price hikes—a phenomenon known as the “egg shock.”

According to the agriculture ministry, approximately 130 million egg-laying hens are raised in Japan. During the 2022 season, about 10 percent of them were culled due to avian influenza. 

Even with the 2023 season as a buffer, poultry farms are concerned as production sites have not fully recovered from the damage and are still in the process of doing so.

According to the private research firm Tokyo Shoko Research Ltd., 16 poultry businesses went bankrupt with a total debt of about 41.4 billion yen in 2022. This decreased significantly in 2023—three businesses filed for bankruptcy with total debts at around 200 million yen.

By November of this year, however, the number of bankruptcies had increased again to seven cases with a total debt of about 1.6 billion yen.

“While the damage from 2022 is still affecting companies, there have been cases of businesses shutting down due to the surging prices in feed and fuel,” said Kazufumi Masuda of Tokyo Shoko Research. “If the supply-demand balance of eggs is disrupted, we may see another egg shock.”

(This article was written by Nobufumi Yamada and Eiji Zakoda.)